Warsaw. Conservative Karol Nawrocki won Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, according to the final vote count on Monday. Nawrocki won 50.89 percent of the votes in a very tight race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who received 49.11 percent.

The race had Poland on edge since a first round of voting two weeks earlier, revealing deep divisions in the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.

An early exit poll released Sunday evening suggested Trzaskowski was headed to victory before updated polling began to reverse the picture a couple of hours later.

The outcome suggests that Poland can be expected to take a more populist and nationalist path under its new leader, who was backed by US President Donald Trump.

The Role of President in Poland
Most day-to-day power in the Polish political system rests with a prime minister chosen by the parliament. However, the president's role is not merely ceremonial. The office holds the power to influence foreign policy and veto legislation.

Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on Aug. 6. Under the Polish constitution, the president serves a five-year term and may be re-elected once.

A Headache for Tusk
Prime Minister Donald Tusk came to power in late 2023 with a coalition government that spans a broad ideological divide -- so broad that it hasn't been able to fulfill certain of Tusk's electoral promises, such as loosening the restrictive abortion law or passing a civil partnership law for same-sex couples.

But Duda's veto power has been another obstacle. It has prevented Tusk from fulfilling promises to reverse laws that politicized the court system in a way that the European Union declared to be undemocratic.

Now it appears Tusk will have no way to fulfill those promises, which he made both to voters and the EU.

Some observers in Poland have said the unfulfilled promises could make it more difficult for Tusk to continue his term until the next parliamentary election scheduled for late 2027, particularly if Law and Justice dangles the prospect of future cooperation with conservatives in his coalition.

A Former Boxer, Historian and Political Novice
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old amateur boxer and historian, was tapped by the Law and Justice party as part of its push for a fresh start.

The party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, when it lost power to a centrist coalition led by Tusk. Some political observers predicted the party would never make a comeback, and Nawrocki was chosen as a new face who would not be burned by the scandals of the party's eight years of rule.

The strategy clearly worked.

Nawrocki has most recently been the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, which embraces nationalist historical narratives. He led efforts to topple monuments to the Soviet Red Army in Poland, and Russia responded by putting him on a wanted list, according to Polish media reports.

Nawrocki’s supporters describe him as the embodiment of traditional, patriotic values. Those who oppose secular trends, including LGBTQ+ visibility, have embraced him, viewing him as a reflection of the values they grew up with.

Nawrocki’s candidacy was clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and his participation in a violent street brawl. He denies the criminal links but was unapologetic about the street fight, saying he had taken part in “noble” fights in his life. The revelations did not seem to hurt his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated.

The Trump Factor
Trump made it clear he wanted Nawrocki as Poland's president.

He welcomed Nawrocki to the White House a month ago. And last week the conservative group CPAC held its first meeting in Poland to give Nawrocki a boost. Kristi Noem, the US Homeland Security Secretary and a prominent Trump ally, strongly praised Nawrocki and urged Poles to vote for him.

The United States has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president.

A common refrain from Nawrocki's supporters is that he will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. US flags often appeared at Nawrocki's rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration.

Nawrocki has also echoed some of Trump's language on Ukraine. He promises to continue Poland's support for Ukraine but has been critical of President Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of taking advantage of allies. He has accused Ukrainian refugees of taking advantage of Polish generosity, vowing to prioritize Poles for social services such as health care and schooling.