Jakarta. Vale Indonesia (INCO) is projected to post a sharp rise in net profit in 2026 after securing an 8-million-ton nickel production quota..

Research by CLSA Sekuritas indicates INCO plans to mine and fully sell the quota in the first half of 2026, raising expectations that the company may seek an additional quota increase later in the year.

“INCO has an aggressive production plan, creating potential for an additional quota this year. As a result, the company’s net profit could increase by as much as threefold,” CLSA wrote in a report cited Monday.

Macquarie also recorded that a quota revision for INCO remains widely open, as the high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) projects in Bahodopi and Sorowako are not yet ready, while the Sorowako project has already secured full approval.

The broker lowered its forecast for INCO’s nickel ore sales this year to 8.5 million tons, consisting solely of saprolite. Earlier projections had estimated total sales of 13 million tons, including 5 million tons of saprolite and 8 million tons of limonite.

“However, the impact of this change is limited because the average selling price of limonite nickel ore is three times higher than saprolite. We have also cut our forecast for INCO’s nickel matte production to 61,000 tons from 71,000 tons,” Macquarie wrote.

Macquarie believes tighter nickel production quotas could lift global prices. According to the broker, rising nickel prices are likely to have a greater effect on share valuations than on production levels, opening the door for a broader rerating across nickel stocks.

The firm forecasts INCO’s 2026 revenue and net profit to reach $1.6 billion and $337 million, respectively, compared with $1 billion in revenue and $74 million in net profit projected for 2025. This implies a potential 355% surge in net profit, exceeding CLSA’s estimate.

Macquarie assigned an outperform rating on INCO with a target price of Rp 8,800 and estimated total shareholder return of about 30%, based on a reference price of Rp 6,675 at the time of the report.

Separately, CLSA said INCO’s current valuation remains attractive, citing a projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times and setting a target price of Rp 9,000 per share.

As of Feb. 13, the price of share of INCO stood at Rp 6,975 dropped 125 points or 1.76% with market cap reached Rp 73.51 trillion.