Jakarta. Rupiah is expected to weaken in Monday’s trade as markets remain cautious following the US Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and lingering global uncertainties.

“The rupiah will likely trade in a fluctuating pattern but end weaker within the range of Rp 16,630 to Rp 16,680,” currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said in a written statement on Friday.

Ibrahim noted that the rupiah’s outlook remains volatile after the Fed trimmed its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent. “However, Chair Jerome Powell signaled uncertainty about further cuts, saying that a move in December is far from certain,” Ibrahim added.

On Friday, the rupiah closed slightly stronger by 4 points against the US dollar (USD) at Rp 16,631 after briefly gaining 25 points earlier in the session. The local unit had previously closed at Rp 16,636.

Market sentiment also remained cautious amid skepticism over the outcome of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which aimed to ease trade frictions. Both leaders agreed to cut tariffs by 10 percent on fentanyl-related imports, while China pledged to resume purchases of US soybeans and temporarily lift new restrictions on rare earth exports.

In broader Asia, the rupiah strengthened after China’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected for the seventh straight month in October 2025. “This indicates that local business sentiment remains largely negative,” Ibrahim said.

Domestically, the rupiah may still face downward pressure despite Indonesia’s resilient economic performance. The national economy expanded 5.12 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, supported by contained inflation and strong policy coordination among fiscal, monetary, and real sectors. Inflation remained within the target range of 2.5 percent ±1 percent, with the September rate recorded at 2.65 percent year on year, reflecting stable prices.