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Rupiah Eases as Markets Digest FOMC Minutes and Global Tensions

Martin Bagya Kertiyasa
January 2, 2026 | 5:24 pm
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An officer displays US dollar and rupiah notes at a foreign exchange booth in Jakarta. (Antara Photo/Rivan Awal Lingga/foc/am)
An officer displays US dollar and rupiah notes at a foreign exchange booth in Jakarta. (Antara Photo/Rivan Awal Lingga/foc/am)

Jakarta. Rupiah closed weaker against the US dollar on Friday, pressured by a mix of global monetary policy uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions.

The Indonesian currency slipped 38 points, or 0.23%, to Rp 16,725 per dollar by the end of trading.

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said the rupiah’s decline reflected cautious market sentiment following the release of minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee earlier this week.

“The minutes show that US central bank officials are not fully aligned on the future direction of interest rates,” Ibrahim said.

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According to the document, some policymakers favor holding rates steady after three cuts last year, while others still see room for further easing if inflation continues to cool.

“However, several policymakers believe that maintaining the option for additional rate cuts could be appropriate if inflation keeps easing gradually,” he added.

External pressure on the rupiah also came from rising global geopolitical risks. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated again after both sides accused each other of attacking civilians during New Year celebrations, dampening risk appetite in financial markets.

The flare-up comes amid intensive diplomatic efforts led by US President Donald Trump to push for a resolution to the nearly four-year-long war.

On the domestic front, sentiment remained relatively resilient. Indonesia’s manufacturing sector returned to expansionary territory in December 2025, providing a degree of support for the country’s economic outlook despite external headwinds.

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