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Rupiah Drifts Lower as US CPI Watch Revives Stagflation Concerns

Natasha Khairunisa Amani
December 18, 2025 | 4:54 pm
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A cashier counts US dollars and Indonesian rupiah at a currency exchange in Jakarta, Friday, Feb. 7, 2025. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)
A cashier counts US dollars and Indonesian rupiah at a currency exchange in Jakarta, Friday, Feb. 7, 2025. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)

Jakarta. Rupiah weakened again on Thursday, closing lower against the US dollar amid mounting global uncertainty and cautious sentiment ahead of key US economic data.

The rupiah finished Thursday’s afternoon session down 29 points at Rp 16,723 per dollar, after briefly sliding as much as 40 points earlier in the day from the previous close of Rp 16,694.

Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of Traze Andalan Futures, said the rupiah remained in negative territory as uncertainty over the US economy intensified this week, with official data sending mixed signals about labor market conditions. He added that the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase operations had also raised concerns about market liquidity in the United States.

The currency was further pressured as markets awaited US consumer price index (CPI) data, which investors see as crucial in gauging the direction of the world’s largest economy. Labor market conditions and inflation remain the Federal Reserve’s two main considerations in calibrating monetary policy.

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Beyond interest rate expectations, Ibrahim noted growing market anxiety over the risk of stagflation in the US, a scenario marked by rising unemployment alongside persistent inflation.

External pressures also weighed on the rupiah, including heightened geopolitical tensions in the Americas after US President Donald Trump announced a blockade targeting oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude, intensifying pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government.

In addition, concerns from Eastern Europe continued to dampen sentiment, as the United States was reported to be preparing tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should efforts to secure a peace deal in Ukraine fail.

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