Jakarta. Indonesia’s crude oil benchmark is expected to remain elevated in September as supply risks around key shipping routes and declining US oil inventories keep global prices under pressure.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry projects the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) to average between $83 and $87 per barrel this month, following a sharp increase in August.

The average ICP rose to $89.43 per barrel in August, up $7.75, or 9.48%, from $81.68 per barrel in July.

Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaeman attributed the August surge to global market dynamics driven by heightened geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions along critical oil transportation routes.

“Various tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, including attacks on tanker vessels and refinery facilities, have raised market concerns over the continuity of global oil supplies,” Laode said.

He added that tighter political and economic sanctions, along with stalled international diplomacy, also limited the potential for global oil prices to decline throughout August.

For September, the government expects oil prices to remain supported by supply concerns, particularly disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of declining US crude inventories.

Laode said the direction of the ICP this month would largely depend on changes in global supply conditions and international oil markets.

“With global market pressures still being closely monitored, the development of the ICP in September 2026 will depend heavily on changes in supply conditions and international market developments,” he said.

The government said it would continue monitoring global crude oil prices as part of efforts to maintain national energy security. It also emphasized that the ICP formula is designed transparently to reflect international market conditions and remain accountable to both state finances and the upstream oil and gas industry.

The government is currently monitoring global oil market developments ahead of determining the realized ICP for September, with a focus on national energy security and accountable ICP management.

Add as a preferred source on Google +