Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) climbed 22 points, or 0.31%, to 7,128 at Tuesday’s open, with domestic tailwinds from potential tax incentives and stronger foreign direct investment (FDI) offsetting global uncertainty tied to the US–Iran conflict.

The benchmark index moved within a narrow range of 7,128–7,143 in the opening minutes. Data from RTI showed 918.07 million shares traded, with transaction value reaching Rp 462.98 billion ($26.8 million) across 72,790 trades. Gainers outpaced losers, with 303 stocks advancing, 138 declining, and 216 unchanged.

According to Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, geopolitical tensions remain the primary market driver. The US–Iran diplomatic deadlock has intensified after US President Donald Trump canceled negotiations, stating that Washington “holds all the cards.” Iran, meanwhile, proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz without addressing nuclear issues, an offer rejected by the US, with Marco Rubio emphasizing that the route must remain unrestricted.

On the monetary front, markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision, which is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors are also assessing the inflationary impact of the recent energy shock, with the risk of more hawkish guidance if oil prices stay elevated. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to highlight ongoing uncertainty while leaving room for persistent price pressures.

Wall Street’s rally showed signs of cooling. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to a fresh record high, slowing after weeks of strong gains driven by robust corporate earnings and optimism that the global economy can withstand geopolitical risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 62 points, or 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%, also reaching a record.

Oil markets saw sharper movements, with prices climbing more than 2.5% as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted. The situation has constrained global supply, with crude shipments, including Iranian oil blockaded by the US Navy, struggling to reach international buyers.

Domestically, Kiwoom highlighted a surge in policy-related developments amid the global backdrop. The Indonesia Stock Exchange, through announcement No. Peng-00067/BEI.POP/04-2026, revised the IDX30, LQ45, and IDX80 indices effective May 4, 2026, emphasizing free float and liquidity while removing the HSC factor. The changes led to the exclusion of several large-cap stocks, including BREN, DSSA, and NCKL.

“On the macro side, Moody’s maintained the rating at Baa2 but lowered the outlook to negative, signaling rising fiscal pressure,” Kiwoom said. “The government responded to the energy surge by covering 100% of VAT on flight tickets for approximately 60 days starting April 25, 2026, to maintain purchasing power.”

Phintraco Sekuritas added that Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa signaled potential incentives for Indonesia’s capital market, contingent on the effectiveness of ongoing exchange-led programs. The minister said the government is considering whether such incentives could take the form of tax reductions.

Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia, excluding the financial and oil and gas sectors , grew 8.5% YoY to Rp 250 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.

“This increase marks two consecutive quarters of growth, following a 4.3% YoY rise in the fourth quarter of 2025. The largest inflows mainly came from the basic metals industry at $3.7 billion,” Phintraco Sekuritas said.

Across Asia, markets showed mixed movements as of 9:16 a.m. Jakarta time. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.63% to 60,153, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.87% to 6,672, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.26% to 25,857, and China’s Shanghai Composite declined 0.21% to 4,077.

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