Jakarta. Indonesia's benchmark stock index briefly climbed on Monday before turning lower as investors stayed cautious ahead of this week's domestic bond auction, key economic releases, and a string of major global events.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose as much as 10 points, or 0.16%, to 5,934 before slipping into negative territory minutes after the opening bell. The index traded within a range of 5,898 to 5,936.

As of several minutes into trading, total volume reached 2.2 billion shares worth Rp 746.37 billion ($41.22 million) across more than 450,000 transactions. Declining stocks outnumbered gainers 312 to 172, while 221 stocks were unchanged.

Domestically, investors are awaiting the government's auction of sovereign Islamic bonds (SBSN) on Tuesday, with an indicative issuance target of Rp 10 trillion.

"The auction proceeds will be used to finance part of the 2026 state budget," Phintraco Sekuritas wrote in a research note on Monday.

Bank Indonesia is also scheduled to release May 2026 external debt data, providing an update on government and private-sector borrowing as well as Indonesia's external resilience.

Market participants are also awaiting S&P Global Ratings' sovereign credit review of Indonesia, which is expected to be announced on July 24.

Separately, tax refund realization in the first half of 2026 totaled Rp 171.2 trillion, down 31.5% from a year earlier, mainly due to a 40% decline in corporate income tax refunds and a 29.7% drop in domestic value-added tax (VAT) refunds.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said the slowdown could reflect delayed refund disbursements aimed at preserving the government's cash position.

"A number of observers believe this slowdown indicates delays in tax refund disbursements to protect the government's cash flow. While this supports fiscal liquidity in the short term, it could pressure corporate liquidity and increase the government's payment obligations in later periods if refunds continue to be delayed," Kiwoom said.

The brokerage also noted that the government has raised its 2026 budget financing projection to Rp 734.3 trillion from the initial Rp 689.1 trillion target. Financing realization had reached Rp 452 trillion in the first half, equivalent to 65.6% of the original budget.

External sentiment remained mixed despite Wall Street ending last week higher, led by technology shares.

The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, marking its fourth weekly advance in the past five weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 149 points, or 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.3%.

According to Phintraco Sekuritas, technology stocks were supported by the successful $26.5 billion Nasdaq initial public offering by South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix, the largest IPO ever by a non-US company on the exchange.

"This indicates renewed investor appetite for large-cap technology stocks," the brokerage said.

Meanwhile, crude oil posted weekly gains as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified again, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Gold prices, however, retreated as investors grew increasingly concerned about persistent inflation risks.

Phintraco said investors will continue monitoring developments in the US-Iran conflict, alongside the US second-quarter earnings season, which begins this week with several major banks reporting results.

Attention will also be on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before the US House Financial Services Committee on July 14 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 15 for clues on the future path of US interest rates.

Investors are also awaiting a series of key US economic indicators this week, including consumer inflation, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, retail sales, and housing market data.

In China, markets are watching for second-quarter GDP, trade balance, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and home price data.

Across Asia, regional markets traded mostly lower. As of 8:43 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan's Nikkei fell 1.29%, South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.67%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged down 0.07%, and China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.36%.

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