Jakarta. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has dismissed claims circulating on social media that recent swings in the country's benchmark stock index are driven by President Prabowo Subianto's public speeches, saying global economic developments now have a far greater influence on investor decisions than domestic politics.

IDX President Director Jeffrey Hendrik said attributing fluctuations in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) to the timing of the president's speeches oversimplifies how financial markets operate.

"I don't think that's the case because, at the same time, there are many other factors influencing the market. Linking market movements to those events is not really appropriate," Jeffrey told reporters at the IDX headquarters in South Jakarta on Monday.

His remarks came after online discussions suggested the JCI's gains and losses coincided with President Prabowo's speech schedule. Jeffrey said Indonesia's capital market has matured significantly over the past few decades, reducing the impact of political events on investment decisions.

"In the 1980s, the correlation between political developments and market movements was much stronger. But as Indonesia's economy and democracy have matured, that relationship has weakened considerably," he said, adding that the same trend has long been observed in developed markets such as the United States.

The comments come as the JCI has fallen about 32% since the start of the year to 5,930.84, wiping out more than Rp 6,250 trillion ($344.75 billion) in the market value of listed companies, leaving the exchange with a market capitalization of Rp10,340 trillion.

The speculation has been fueled by several volatile trading sessions. On May 20, when President Prabowo addressed a parliamentary plenary session on strategic commodity export policies, the JCI swung sharply, opening lower, briefly rebounding, then ending the morning session down 0.60% at 6,332.17.

A similar pattern emerged on June 23, when the JCI declined as Prabowo delivered a speech in Gorontalo. However, analysts largely attributed the sell-off to external factors, particularly the release of MSCI's Global Market Accessibility Review, rather than the president's appearance.

Jeffrey said such episodes should not be interpreted as evidence that presidential speeches drive market performance.

"We have seen this trend in Indonesia for quite some time. The correlation between political events and investment activity in the capital market is no longer very strong," he said.

According to the IDX, today's market volatility is primarily driven by global uncertainty. Jeffrey cited several key risks, including U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, volatile global oil prices, and investor caution ahead of US Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Those factors, he said, have a much more direct impact on Indonesian equities than routine domestic political events.

"The global dynamics are what have a more direct impact on market movements than domestic politics," Jeffrey said.

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