Jakarta. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index opened lower on Monday as investors braced for the upcoming MSCI index review and monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 9 points, or 0.14%, to 6,959 in early trading, moving within the range of 6,953 to 6,968.

RTI data showed 1.28 billion shares traded in the opening minutes, with transaction value reaching Rp 535.23 billion ($30.75 million) across 105,145 trades. A total of 262 stocks advanced, 205 declined, and 226 were unchanged.

Phintraco Sekuritas said market participants were closely watching the MSCI global index review scheduled for Tuesday, as the outcome could affect foreign capital flows and trading volatility on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

“The JCI is projected to move within the range of 6,850-7,100 amid the shortened trading week ahead of the long weekend,” Phintraco Sekuritas wrote in its Monday research note.

The brokerage also said investors were monitoring the government’s plan to raise progressive royalty tariffs on several metal commodities, including nickel, copper, gold, silver, and tin. The policy could weigh on the basic materials sector, one of the key supports for the benchmark index.

However, Phintraco noted the higher royalty rates could also boost state revenue.

Separately, Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said the Financial Services Authority (OJK) is accelerating efforts to strengthen the national carbon trading ecosystem through regulatory revisions and the development of the Carbon Unit Registry System (SRUK) in collaboration with the IDX, targeted for completion in June 2026.

“This step is supported by the issuance of Forestry Ministry Regulation No. 6/2026 and is expected to increase the transparency and credibility of Indonesia’s carbon market globally, while strengthening Indonesia’s position as one of the countries with the world’s largest carbon reserve potential,” Kiwoom said.

Global sentiment also supported the market after Wall Street ended higher on Friday, posting weekly gains despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

Phintraco Sekuritas said the rally in US equities was driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data. Nonfarm payrolls showed the US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, exceeding market estimates of 55,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3%, in line with expectations.

“Crude oil prices edged higher after the US and Iran exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz,” Phintraco Sekuritas said.

The brokerage added that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained a key concern for global markets amid the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.

Investors are also awaiting key US economic data this week, including consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) figures, as differing views emerge within the Federal Reserve over the direction of monetary policy.

On Wall Street Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to a fresh record high after data showed US employers added 115,000 more jobs than they cut last month, despite concerns that the conflict with Iran could drive up fuel costs and uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 12 points, or less than 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.7% to another record.

From Asia, China is scheduled to release monetary aggregate, CPI, and PPI data. Investors are also awaiting a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026.

“The main focus of the meeting will be the US-Iran war crisis, where Trump hopes China can pressure Iran, while discussions will also cover trade, rare earth metals, and security issues,” Phintraco Sekuritas said.

As of 9:15 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.34%, while China’s Shanghai SSE rose 0.59%.

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