Jakarta. The government projected that the Indonesian crude oil price, known as ICP, will hold steady within the range of $70-80 per barrel next year.

Global oil prices skyrocketed to more than $120 a barrel soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February last year but they remained stable under $80 in recent months.

“The estimate for the rest of the year and next year puts oil prices at a stable level given the current geopolitical situations,” Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif said in an exclusive interview with B-Universe Media Holdings at his office in Jakarta on Tuesday.

The estimated ICP mentioned in the state budget bill is based on the average crude oil price in May which stood at $76.41 per barrel with a declining trend.

Various research agencies such as Reuters Polls and the Short-Term Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected global oil prices at $69.47-88 per barrel for next year.

According to Arifin, the Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries will attempt to curb crude oil production to keep prices from falling under $80. 

“But on the other hand, crude oil consumers particularly refinery owners aren’t so happy with high crude oil prices because they reduce the [profit] margin,” Arifin said.

“The OPEC+ will try to control prices by managing daily output: reduce production when prices decline, and increase production when prices are deemed too high,” he added.

More and more countries have been intensifying oil-saving measures and accelerating the transition to clean energy since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out.

Many factors have affected global oil prices such as the global economic slowdown, high inflation in many countries, the U.S. oil production rate, the ongoing war that hampers Russia’s oil exports, and the reopening of the Chinese economy after the Covid-19 pandemic.