Jakarta. Indonesia is poised to reap a significant boost in state revenue from its natural resources sector as global commodity prices climb amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, even without any policy changes.

Finance Ministry’s Director General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy, Febrio Kacaribu, said the rally in key commodities, including coal, crude palm oil (CPO), nickel, and copper, is already translating into higher government income.

“Without any policy changes, our revenue will certainly increase,” Febrio said on Thursday.

Still, the government is not content to rely solely on market-driven gains. The Finance Ministry is coordinating with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to design additional measures to optimize the windfall from commodity exports.

Several fiscal instruments are under review, ranging from royalty rate adjustments to the introduction of export duties on strategic minerals.

“We are reviewing various minerals. The instruments could vary. Some may involve royalties, others export duties. We will finalize them first, and once ready, we will announce the policy,” Febrio said.

On the potential rollout of coal export duties, he stressed that any decision would be aligned with global trade dynamics, including the use of import tariffs to maintain balance between export and import markets. He added that the government remains confident in meeting its 2026 customs and excise revenue targets.

As of March 31, 2026, state revenue stood at Rp 574.9 trillion ($33.6 billion), equivalent to 18.2% of the annual target, marking a 10.5% year-on-year increase, according to Finance Ministry data.

However, customs and excise revenue reached only Rp 67.9 trillion, or 20.2% of the target, contracting 12.6% year-on-year.

The government expects that optimizing windfall policies will help sustain fiscal resilience amid global commodity price volatility while supporting long-term development.

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