Jakarta. A global commodity shock highlighted by the World Bank is poised to boost Indonesia’s key exports, particularly coal and nickel, as energy disruptions and strong demand lift prices across major commodities.

In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will rise about 16% this year, driven largely by higher energy prices. “Average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16% this year, the first annual increase since 2022,” the report said.

Coal is emerging as a near-term beneficiary. Prices are forecast to rise around 20% as tighter gas supplies push countries, especially in Asia, back toward coal for power generation.

Coal rose to $133.65 per ton on April 29, up 1.83% from the previous day. Over the past month, the coal price has fallen 7.35%, but it is still 37.08% higher than a year ago, according to Trading Economics.

Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, is likely to benefit from the increase, with stronger demand expected to support export revenues and the trade balance. The country produced 836.13 million tons of coal in 2024, with output expected to ease to around 790 million tons in 2025 while remaining among the world’s largest producers. Production is projected to be further reduced to around 600 million tons in 2026, as the government seeks to stabilize prices, ensure domestic supply, and support its energy transition goals.

Meanwhile, metals markets are being driven by more structural forces. Prices are forecast to rise about 17% in 2026, supported by sustained demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centers.

“Globally, consumption growth is envisaged to outweigh constrained supply expansion, such that nickel prices are projected to increase by 12% in 2026 (YoY) and rise by 3% in 2027,” it added.

The World Bank highlighted Indonesia’s growing role in global nickel processing, while warning that supply constraints could keep markets tight.

“Despite the policy change in Indonesia, global refined nickel production is expected to increase modestly in 2026 and 2027 as new processing capacity comes online in Indonesia. Tighter upstream ore availability is likely to constrain capacity utilization and keep market conditions tight. Further disruptions to sulfur exports (used for the leaching of nickel ore) from producers in the Middle East due to the conflict are an upside risk for nickel prices,” the report said.

While coal gains are largely driven by short-term energy market disruptions, nickel demand reflects longer-term structural shifts linked to electrification and the global energy transition.

“The rise in energy prices this year is set to slow growth in emerging market and developing economies and drive their average inflation rate to a four-year high,” the report said.

According to the World Bank's January 2026 Global Economic Prospects, the global economy is showing resilience despite trade tensions, with growth expected to ease to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027.

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