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Indonesia Sets 2026 GDP Growth Target at 5.4%, Deficit at 2.68% of GDP

Arnoldus Kristianus
September 24, 2025 | 3:59 am
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Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa hands over the 2026 State Budget documents to House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani at the national legislature building in Jakarta, Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa hands over the 2026 State Budget documents to House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani at the national legislature building in Jakarta, Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. (B-Universe Photo/Joanito De Saojoao)

Jakarta. The House of Representatives on Tuesday passed the 2026 State Budget Law in a plenary session attended by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

The budget foresees a wider fiscal deficit than this year but is intended to serve as a tool to achieve the government’s short- and medium-term development goals, while also acting as a buffer for low-income households against economic shocks.

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Economic growth: 5.4 percent 
Inflation: 2.5 percent 
Exchange rate: Rp 16,500 per US dollar
10-year government bond yield: 6.9 percent 
Indonesian crude oil price (ICP): $70 per barrel
Oil lifting: 610,000 barrels per day
Gas lifting: 984,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day

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Key Projections

State revenue: Rp 3,153.58 trillion

  • Tax revenue: Rp 2,693.71 trillion
  • Non-tax revenue (PNBP): Rp 459.2 trillion
  • Grants: Rp 660 billion

State expenditure: Rp 3,842.72 trillion

  • Central government spending: Rp 3,149.73 trillion
  • Ministries: Rp 1,510.55 trillion
  • Non-ministerial agencies: Rp 1,639.19 trillion
  • Transfers to regions: Rp 692.99 trillion

Budget deficit: Rp 689.15 trillion, or 2.68 percent of GDP

Welfare Indicators

  • Open unemployment rate: 4.44–4.96 percent 
  • Poverty rate: 6.5–7.5 percent 
  • Extreme poverty rate: 0–0.5 percent 
  • Gini ratio: 0.377–0.380
  • Human Capital Index: 0.57
  • Farmers’ Welfare Index: 0.7731
  • Formal job creation: 37.95 percent 
  • GNI per capita: $5,520

Finance Minister Purbaya stressed that fiscal discipline will remain a priority, but the 2026 budget is also designed to accelerate growth, create jobs, and reduce inequality, while ensuring macroeconomic stability.

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