Jakarta. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the government has not estimated the potential fiscal impact of Pertamax users switching to lower-priced Pertalite following this week's sharp increase in non-subsidized fuel prices, as concerns grow that higher demand for subsidized fuel could strain the 2026 energy subsidy budget.

Purbaya acknowledged that some consumers may opt for cheaper fuel but dismissed the possibility of a large-scale migration, arguing that fuel choices are also determined by vehicle specifications.

"We have not calculated the budgetary impact. There will certainly be some vehicles switching, but not all of them, because cars that use Pertamax are designed for Pertamax," Purbaya told reporters at the Parliament Complex in Jakarta on Thursday.

He said the government currently has no data on how many Pertamax users may switch to Pertalite after the latest fuel price adjustment.

Purbaya added that the management of subsidized fuel consumption and distribution falls under the authority of the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

"You should probably ask Energy Minister Bahlil. He knows that issue better," he said.

Concerns over consumer migration have intensified after the price difference between Pertamax and Pertalite widened significantly. A substantial shift toward Pertalite could push consumption beyond the allocated quota and increase the government's energy subsidy burden in 2026.

Separately, Center of Reform on Economics economist Mohammad Faisal said a shift from Pertamax to Pertalite is highly likely following the steep increase in non-subsidized fuel prices.

However, Faisal noted that the migration would not be entirely unrestricted because the government has implemented various controls over the distribution of subsidized and assigned fuels.

“Switching to a lower-grade fuel is not easy today because there are usage controls, quotas, and supply restrictions," Faisal said.

Still, he urged the government to closely monitor the impact of higher Pertamax prices on Pertalite demand to ensure subsidized fuel distribution remains on target and within the quota set by the government.