Jakarta. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday revised Indonesia’s 2027 oil lifting target upward to 612,500 barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the figure proposed in the draft state budget.

The revised target is 2,500 bpd higher than the 610,000 bpd set in the proposed 2027 state budget and unchanged from the target in the 2026 budget.

“For oil production, I communicated with several ministries and other leaders a few days ago, and as a result, the figure was revised to around 612,500 bpd,” Bahlil said during a meeting with the House of Representatives’ energy commission at the parliament complex in Jakarta.

The government, however, lowered its 2027 natural gas lifting target to around 954,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), from 984,000 boepd previously.

The revisions put Indonesia’s combined oil and gas lifting target for 2027 at around 1.57 million boepd, below the projected 2026 output of 1.59 million boepd.

President Prabowo Subianto had previously proposed an oil lifting target of 610,000 bpd for 2027 when presenting the draft state budget to the House on Aug. 14.

The government has also assumed an Indonesian crude oil price of $75 per barrel for 2027, $5 above the 2026 assumption.

Bahlil cautioned, however, that heightened geopolitical tensions have made global energy prices, particularly crude oil, increasingly difficult to predict.

He said conflicts in various parts of the world could trigger sharp swings in oil prices with little warning.

Among the geopolitical disruptions affecting global energy markets is the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has disrupted maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies normally pass.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks on dozens of Russian oil refineries have disrupted the country’s refining capacity, forcing Moscow to import refined fuels from abroad. Russia has historically been one of the world’s largest crude oil producers and a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

Bahlil compared the volatility in global oil prices to a malaria fever, which can rise and fall suddenly.

“Given the current global dynamics, we still cannot predict when the wars will end, and I would compare global oil prices to malaria,” Bahlil said.

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