Jakarta. As sanctions and geopolitical tensions complicate global trade, businesses face growing uncertainty over how to stay compliant while expanding ties with partners like Russia and Belarus.

The issue took center stage at the Jakarta Globe Insight forum titled “Building a Stronger Partnership for Shared Global Impact,” where policymakers and diplomats acknowledged that trade decisions are increasingly shaped by political risks rather than purely economic considerations.

Russian Ambassador Sergei Gennadievich Tolchenov insisted that trade between Indonesia and Russia does not violate international rules, but acknowledged that external pressure remains a major concern.

“All of us are following the World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations,” he said on Tuesday. “The real question is what happens if another country imposes its own rules that harm bilateral relations.”

Tolchenov said many businesses have become hesitant to engage with Russia due to fears of secondary sanctions.

“Some partners are afraid of doing business with us because they worry about potential sanctions from Western countries,” he said. “Ultimately, it depends on businesses whether they are ready to take that risk.”

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Belarus Ambassador Raman Ramanouski shared the concern, arguing that sanctions are often political tools rather than instruments grounded in international law.

“These unilateral measures are not based on international law. They are used for political purposes,” he said. “Businesses should focus on opportunities and cooperate based on international rules and mutual interests.”

Former Indonesian Ambassador to the WTO Iman Pambagyo said global commerce is entering a more complex phase, where rules still exist but are no longer consistently followed.

“The WTO system is still intact, and its rules remain legally binding. But politically, the system is being outgrown by its own members,” Iman said on Tuesday, in Jakarta. “Rules still exist, but belief in those rules is fading.

This raises the question of how businesses can ensure trade remains smooth while still complying with international regulations amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Iman responded that companies should still rely on the WTO as a baseline, but adopt a more flexible approach.

“We should continue to use WTO agreements as the rulebook. But we also need what I call a ‘tolerable geometry’ approach, moving forward in areas where cooperation is still possible,” he said. “Diversification is key, both in partners and markets.”

Despite the risks, speakers emphasized that opportunities remain significant, particularly as Indonesia seeks to diversify beyond traditional partners such as the United States, China, and Europe.

A key development is the pending free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Russia and Belarus. Once fully ratified, the deal could eliminate tariffs on more than 90% of goods traded.

However, Iman cautioned that Indonesia has yet to fully utilize its existing trade agreements, a gap that must be addressed before new partnerships can deliver real impact.

“We already have many trade agreements, but they are not being maximized,” he said. “This is the homework for both the government and the business sector.”

Beyond trade, cooperation areas discussed included energy, agriculture, and fertilizers, with Russia highlighting potential oil and nuclear energy collaboration, while Belarus pointed to agricultural inputs and machinery.

Still, the overarching message was clear: in today’s fragmented global landscape, economic decisions can no longer be separated from geopolitics.

“Trade is increasingly being weaponized,” Iman said. “Some countries expect their partners to follow their foreign policy positions, and if not, sanctions may follow.”

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