Jakarta. Indonesia is on track to welcome more foreign tourists in 2026 than it did before the Covid-19 pandemic, even as the domestic aviation industry struggles with high operating costs, shrinking passenger numbers, and a smaller aircraft fleet.

The Indonesian Tourism Industry Association (GIPI) projects foreign tourist arrivals will reach 16.22 million this year, slightly surpassing the 16.11 million recorded in 2019.

The forecast follows a 5.38% increase in foreign tourist arrivals during the first eight months of 2026, bringing the total to approximately 10.58 million visits.

“If this growth trend continues, foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 are projected to slightly beat the pre-pandemic levels,” GIPI Chairman Hariyadi Sukamdani said at a press conference in Jakarta on Wednesday.

However, the recovery in international tourism has not translated into a comparable rebound in domestic air travel.

Data presented by GIPI showed that domestic air passenger numbers declined 22.9%, from 79.4 million in 2019 to 61.2 million in 2025. International air passenger numbers also fell over the same period, from 37.3 million to 34.7 million.

High Fuel Costs Weigh on Aviation Recovery
Indonesia's airline fleet has also contracted. According to the Indonesian National Air Carriers Association (INACA), the number of aircraft operated by domestic carriers declined from 616 in 2019 to 560 in 2026.

Of the 560 aircraft, only 366 were operational, while the remaining 194 were undergoing maintenance.

Edy Krismeidi, director of Indonesia affairs and strategic communications at Indonesia AirAsia, identified persistently high aviation fuel prices as a major burden on the industry.

“Our aviation fuel prices have not come down and remain at around Rp 23,000 a liter. Of that level, the fuel surcharge accounts for roughly 40%,” Edy said.

He said rising operating costs had contributed to a 3.5% contraction in the domestic aviation industry in August.

Beyond expensive fuel, domestic airlines face regulatory constraints and unequal access to government incentives.

Edy said airlines were ineligible for import duty exemptions on aircraft spare parts because the incentive was currently available only to maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) service providers.

High operating costs have made it increasingly difficult for airlines to offer affordable fares, potentially limiting the recovery in domestic air travel.

The financial burden is further compounded by value-added tax (VAT) on domestic airline tickets, which does not apply to other modes of transportation, such as trains, according to the presentation.

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