Jakarta. Commodity-linked stocks led a broad selloff on Wednesday after the government unveiled a new state-controlled export governance scheme for natural resource commodities, triggering concerns over tighter state intervention and export centralization.

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) briefly plunged nearly 2% during intraday trading before trimming losses to close the first session down 0.60% at 6,332.

Trading activity remained heavy. Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange showed 27.55 billion shares changed hands in 1.6 million transactions, with total turnover reaching Rp 13.67 trillion ($772.44 million).

Coal, palm oil, and mining stocks were among the biggest losers. Shares of Bumi Resources fell 8.6%, Indika Energy dropped 9.02%, and Amman Mineral Internasional slid 8.12%. Trimegah Bangun Persada lost 5.17%, while Merdeka Battery Materials declined 3.78%. Plantation stocks also weakened, with Dharma Satya Nusantara down 1.96% and Triputra Agro Persada slipping 0.31%.

Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, said the index remained under pressure technically, although rising trading volume could signal a potential rebound in the near term.

Investors were also closely watching President Prabowo Subianto’s economic policy speech during a plenary session at the House of Representatives, as markets sought clarity on fiscal policy direction, macroeconomic stability, and measures to calm financial market volatility.

“If the speech provides certainty and shows support for market stability, the opportunity for a technical rebound is wide open,” Nafan said. “But if it is seen as lacking concrete measures, selling pressure may continue.”

During press conference, Prabowo outlined the government’s 2027 macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy assumptions. The government targets state revenue at between 11.82% and 12.40% of gross domestic product in the 2027 state budget.

“Allow me to present the key figures of the 2027 macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy,” Prabowo said during the plenary session in Jakarta. “First, state revenue in the 2027 budget is targeted at around 11.82% to 12.40% of GDP.”

State spending is projected at between 13.62% and 14.80% of GDP to support the administration’s priority programs.

Prabowo also pledged to keep the fiscal deficit under control.

“In terms of financing, we will maintain the 2027 state budget deficit at around 1.80% to a maximum of 2.40% of GDP,” he said. “We will continue striving to reduce and narrow this deficit.”

Sentiment weakened further after the government unveiled a new presidential regulation that would centralize natural resource commodity exports under state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

The policy is designed to tighten state oversight of strategic commodity exports and channel export transactions through SOEs.

Under the first transition phase from June 1 to Aug. 31, 2026, export trading transactions between Indonesian exporters and overseas buyers will gradually be shifted to SOEs. Companies will be required to reroute export contracts and transactions through SOEs.

Starting Sept. 1, the policy will enter full implementation, placing export transaction management, overseas contracts, and export administration entirely under SOEs through a centralized system.

The government also projected the 10-year government bond yield at 6.5% to 7.3%, while the rupiah exchange rate was estimated at between Rp 16,800 and Rp 17,500 per US dollar.

Markets were additionally awaiting Bank Indonesia’s policy decision later on Wednesday. Mirae Asset expects the central bank to keep its benchmark BI-Rate unchanged at 4.75%, differing from market consensus that forecasts a 25 basis-point hike to 5%.

According to Nafan, Bank Indonesia is likely to prioritize rupiah stability through market intervention instead of aggressive rate hikes.

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