Indonesia is set to conduct its presidential election on February 14, featuring three candidates vying to succeed the populist President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. In contrast to the two preceding elections, the political landscape appears more subdued, marked by a lack of excessive rhetoric or religious sentiments. Occasional dramatic moments on the debate stage may cause some uproar but it’s limited to certain communities and social media engagements.

Yayan Hidayat, the Executive Director of The Strategic Research and Consulting Agency (TSRC), told the Kompas news website that pragmatism has taken precedence over ideologies in Indonesian politics. Consequently, political parties often align with the interests of those in power, pursuing short-term gains.

A political communications analyst suggested that the post-election scenario this year might mirror that of the 2019 elections. In that instance, the winning coalition successfully enticed certain parties from the losing alliance to switch sides, forming a pro-government “grand coalition.” From a positive perspective, this development could lead to enhanced economic and political stability, particularly when defending the legacy of the previous government.

To a certain extent, this development is favorable news for businesses and Indonesian citizens alike, as it suggests a preference for the current state of affairs over uncertainty.

Biden vs Trump Rematch
Meanwhile, the 2024 United States primary election process started with the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire Primary on Jan. 23. As polls had predicted, former president Donald Trump won the multi-candidate Iowa caucus, winning 51 percent of the votes. In New Hampshire, the former president defeated his remaining GOP rival, Nikki Haley, by 11.2 points.

The rest of the primaries and caucuses will be held in the other 48 US states, Washington DC, and the US territories until the formal presidential nomination will be held at the Republican National Convention from July 15-18. Various polls show that Trump is the favorite candidate to win the GOP presidential nomination. He defeated Haley in electability by 70.7 percent to 14.5 percent according to the FiveThirtyEight poll, and 70.2 to 12.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics poll, indicating Haley’s path to winning the presidential nomination is already over.

This means a rematch between the former GOP president and the Democratic incumbent nominee, President Joe Biden, is certain to happen in November, with Trump currently having the upper hand.

The poll from RealClearPolitics indicates if the US presidential election was held today, Trump would beat Biden by +3.8 points nationally, as well as in crucial swing states like Georgia (+6.6), Nevada (+5.4), Michigan (+5.3), and Arizona (+4.8), but a close tie would be seen in Wisconsin (45.8 vs 45.8) and be slightly lagged in Pennsylvania (-0.6). In 2020, Biden won the 2020 presidential election by +4.5 percent nationally and carried all the five key swing states.

Analysts said Biden has succeeded in the first term by navigating the US through Covid-19, controlling inflation, creating jobs, and preventing a recession. The US economy is predicted to grow 2.6 percent in 2023, with the inflation rate reaching as low as 3.4 percent (down from 6.5 percent in 2022 and 7 percent in 2021). The US also created 2.7 million jobs in 2023 and the predicted recession in 2023 did not materialize.

Surprisingly, most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy, with nearly half of Americans saying the economy was getting worse, and two-thirds of Americans disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy according to The Economist/ YouGov poll from November.

The prediction of Trump’s second presidency has worried businesses worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit's survey of 120 CEOs revealed that 70 percent of respondents believed a second Trump term would be worse for the global economy than the first.  

Some of the CEOs’ concerns include “Trump’s trade policies, his attacks on the global trading system and his hostility to immigration,” which would result in "higher uncertainty, lower growth, and more instability."

The New York Times reported one of Trump's second-term agendas included new measures that could boost domestic manufacturing and factory jobs but could subsequently disrupt the global economy. This could prevent Americans from investing in China and result in aggressive immigration policies producing, "an assault on immigration at a scale unseen in modern American history."

Trump’s return to presidency appears ironic considering the 91 criminal indictments he faces in DC, New York, Georgia, and Florida. However, US politics is increasingly partisan meaning the indictments only seem to strengthen voters’ support for Trump instead of turning off their enthusiasm. Peter Grier from the Christian Science Monitor said in the era of Trump, US swing voters were “mythical creatures, unicorns, nothing but a flash of white in the forest at dusk," as they comprised only 5 percent of the electorate.  

The US style of dividing society into ideologically different groups such as the Blue Americans and Red Americans, would not happen in a political pragmatist Indonesia. Regardless of who wins Indonesia's 2024 Presidential election, the transition to the new government is expected to be smooth, and the new president and vice president will keep or improve the good policies inherited from the previous government.

It will be unfortunate to see Indonesia's political pragmatism turn into excessive opportunism that could resemble a New Order Era style of collusion, corruption, and nepotism. The New Order government succeeded in driving sustained economic growth at an average of 6 percent for three decades, but we also know Soeharto's economic story ended with a double-digit economic decline, mass riots, a quarter of Indonesians living below the poverty line, and the possession of national assets by foreign corporations.

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Didin Nasirudin is the managing director of Bening Communication and a US politics observer. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author.

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