In Jakarta, as in many world capitals, economic policymakers now find themselves grappling with not just fluctuating markets but also fluctuating messages from the United States. Under President Donald Trump, American foreign and economic policy appears guided less by structured diplomacy and more by what some analysts dub the "Madman Theory" in practice.

Trump governs less like a statesman and more like a high-stakes trader at a bustling market stall. This bazaar-style leadership relies on keeping everyone off balance through unpredictability, surprise tariffs, unscheduled leader-to-leader phone calls, and off-the-cuff announcements via his social media platform, Truth Social. Yet what may appear as strength on the surface often translates into paralysis and economic damage for America’s partners.

The Global Economy on Edge
The year 2025 has already delivered a cascade of disruptive moves from Washington. Countries from Jakarta to Brussels have faced:

• Sudden import tariffs with little or no notice.
• Abrupt reversals of trade agreements.
• Market-moving social media posts and unplanned personal calls from the US president.

Such unpredictability has real consequences. Investment flows freeze. Companies hold back on expansion. Governments become less willing to negotiate in good faith when deals can be overturned overnight.

Indonesia: A Partner Undermined
Indonesia, despite its historically friendly relationship with the US, has not been spared. Jakarta now faces a 32 percent tariff on key exports to the US, affecting palm oil, electronics, textiles, rubber goods, and footwear. These sectors form the backbone of Indonesia's export economy.

This is especially frustrating considering that Indonesia had proactively offered significant concessions to the US:

• Near-zero tariffs for US goods entering Indonesia.
• A $34 billion US product purchase agreement.
• Access to critical minerals like nickel, copper, and cobalt.

Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto has been leading negotiations, but in the current climate, securing a stable deal with Washington is like trying to hit a moving target.

The Vietnam Lesson: Unilateral Moves
Vietnam offers another stark example. Believing it had secured a deal to maintain US tariffs at 11 percent, Hanoi was blindsided when Trump personally called Vietnamese General Secretary Tô Lâm -- someone outside formal trade talks -- and unilaterally imposed a 20 percent base tariff, rising to 40 percent for goods suspected of re-exporting Chinese products.

No formal diplomatic channels were used. No warnings were given. The impact was immediate: market volatility and diplomatic shock.

Fracturing Trust Across the Globe
Similar scenes are playing out in Europe. The European Union, facing tariffs as high as 50 percent on automotive, steel, and pharmaceutical products, has expressed mounting frustration.

"You can’t build alliances on guesswork," said Maroš Šefčovič, Vice President of the European Commission. One senior EU official summarized the mood: "Every time we think we have a deal, he moves the goalposts."

In Southeast Asia, Thailand and Malaysia also reported receiving surprise tariff letters without prior consultation, triggering panic among economic ministries. This erosion of trust is not easily repaired.

TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out
Among market insiders, there is an informal term for this behavior: TACO, or "Trump Always Chickens Out." It describes Trump’s pattern of announcing extreme policies only to gradually reverse them. Yet even temporary chaos leaves lasting scars. Investment is delayed. Supply chains are disrupted. Business confidence erodes.

When Both Sides Lose
The economic fallout is not limited to America’s partners. The United States itself is paying a price:

• The OECD projects US GDP growth at just 1.6 percent for 2025.
• JPMorgan warns that rising import costs could fuel inflation.
• US federal courts are reviewing Trump's use of emergency tariff powers.

Indonesia faces its own challenges:

• GDP forecasts have been downgraded from 5.2 percent to between 4.7 and 5.0 percent.
• Export-heavy industries risk mass layoffs, especially in textiles and palm oil.

Chaos Is Not Strategy
This commentary is not a personal attack on Donald Trump. It is a critique of a leadership style that undermines global stability, including Indonesia's economic security.

When foreign policy is driven by impulse rather than clear strategy, it is not America’s enemies who suffer most -- but its friends and partners. Indonesia, like many nations, is working to build a stable and self-reliant economy. Yet when its largest economic partner behaves unpredictably, those efforts become much harder.

The Madman Theory might yield short-term gains, but in a deeply interconnected world, confusion is not strength. Chaos is not a strategy. And in the end, both America and its partners stand to lose.

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Trista Nagel is a graduate of Gadjah Mada University (UGM) in International Relations and is currently pursuing her Master’s degree in Global Business Management at Monash University.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the author.