Jakarta. Saidiman Ahmad of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) predicts a close race in the 2024 West Java gubernatorial election, emphasizing Dedi Mulyadi's lead in electability against PKS Chairman Ahmad Syaikhu's effective voter mobilization.

"I see two major contenders here in West Java: Dedi Mulyadi, who is backed by many parties, and PKS, which has a history of being very effective in mobilizing voters in the final days," Saidiman said during a discussion titled "Unveiling the Power Map of Regional Election Candidates in Six Strategic Provinces" at the B-Universe office in PIK 2, Tangerang, on Monday.

West Java, with 35.71 million voters, is the province with the highest number of voters, followed by East Java with 31.4 million, Central Java with 28.29 million, North Sumatra with 10.85 million, Banten with 8.84 million, and Jakarta with 8.25 million.

Saidiman explained that while Dedi Mulyadi has higher electability than Ahmad Syaikhu, his support is concentrated in specific areas rather than being evenly distributed across West Java, unlike the widespread popularity of former Governor Ridwan Kamil.

"Although Dedi Mulyadi is relatively ahead of other candidates, his support is concentrated in specific areas, such as Karawang and Purwakarta, where he previously served as regent. Other regions are dominated by different political groups," Saidiman noted.

"For instance, Bekasi, Depok, and Bogor are strongholds of Islamic political groups, specifically PKS, where Ahmad Syaikhu has significant support. In other areas, such as the northern coast, PDI-P holds sway with figures like Ono Surono. West Java is a large province, and no figure is as universally popular as Ridwan Kamil was. Dedi Mulyadi is dominant in certain areas but not across the entire region," he added.

According to Saidiman, the contest between Dedi Mulyadi and Ahmad Syaikhu represents a clash between a candidate backed by multiple parties and a party with strong voter mobilization capabilities. He emphasized that Dedi Mulyadi and his supporting parties should be mindful of this dynamic.

"This creates an open battleground, especially considering Ahmad Syaikhu's backing by PKS, which has shown in previous elections that they are very effective in mobilizing voters in the final weeks. Sometimes, current surveys fail to capture the full extent of PKS's vote because they are so effective in the final days before the election," Saidiman concluded.

The 2024 West Java gubernatorial election will feature four pairs of candidates. The first pair is Dedi Mulyadi and Erwan Setiawan, supported by 14 parties, including Gerindra, Golkar, Democrat, PAN, and PSI, as well as nine non-parliamentary parties such as Hanura, Gelora, Garuda, PKN, Labor Party, Prima, Perindo, PBB, and Ummat Party.

The second pair is Ahmad Syaikhu and Ilham Habibie, supported by Nasdem, PKS, and PPP. The third pair is Acep Adang Ruhiyat and Gitalis Dwi Natarina, supported by the National Awakening Party (PKB). Lastly, Jeje Wiradinata and Ronal Surapradja are backed by PDI-P.

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