Jakarta. Analysts say France has emerged as the safest partner for Indonesia’s military modernization drive, offering fewer political constraints than the United States or Russia as Jakarta continues to become its largest arms buyer in ASEAN.

Indonesia has ordered 42 French-made Dassault Rafale fighter jets -- three of which have already been delivered -- along with two Scorpène-class submarines to be built domestically. The Rafale purchase, valued at $8.1 billion, places Indonesia among the aircraft’s largest customers worldwide. President Prabowo Subianto has met several times with Emmanuel Macron to discuss defense cooperation, most recently on Tuesday.

The choice of France has prompted questions over why Jakarta favored Paris over two of the world’s biggest arms exporters: the US and Russia. In 2017, Washington introduced sanctions targeting countries making major Russian weapons purchases, complicating deals with Moscow.

Adrianus Prima, a military analyst at Lembaga KERIS, said the threat of sanctions has discouraged Indonesia from proceeding with Russia’s Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Meanwhile, budget constraints have limited prospects for acquiring Boeing’s F-15EX Eagle II.

“Paris has shown a strong commitment to creating added value for Indonesia, including human capital development and infrastructure support. French defense procurement is also less restrictive, as it does not heavily limit Indonesia’s operational use,” Adrianus said.

Defense analyst Beni Sukardis of LESPERSSI said the Rafale offers an attractive mix of political flexibility and financing.

“Indonesia is calculating geopolitical risks. The Rafale reflects a middle-path strategy -- avoiding overdependence on one major power while preserving strategic autonomy amid global rivalry,” Beni said.

Jakarta is still reviewing a possible expansion of its Rafale fleet, though no final decision has been made. Both analysts support further purchases, while cautioning that force planning must remain coherent.

Beni said Indonesia should build a layered capability by combining Rafales with other platforms such as South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae. “But this must be balanced with mature system integration to avoid logistical and fiscal pressure,” he said.

Adrianus added that more Rafales could strengthen Indonesia’s bargaining power over specifications, customization, and industrial benefits. However, he warned against excessive supplier diversification.

“It is important to reduce dependence on a single country, but too much diversification can become a logistical nightmare. Different countries, factories, and systems require new training and maintenance structures. Diversification must be measured,” he said.

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