Jakarta. An analyst recently said that President Prabowo Subianto, who had shown to take a quite hands-on approach to foreign policy, would likely come up with surprises in the future, especially after the retired army general snagged a BRICS membership.

Prabowo had only assumed power in late October, succeeding Joko “Jokowi’ Widodo’s decade-long leadership. Prabowo has repeatedly said that he wants  to befriend all nations, and become an enemy to none. Within less than 3 months, Prabowo had already made headlines for his foreign policy moves. 

Southeast Asia’s largest economy Indonesia formally applied to the China and Russia-led BRICS grouping immediately after Prabowo’s inauguration, and had just recently got accepted as the club’s full-fledged member. The English-speaking Prabowo already spent weeks abroad meeting world leaders, including making his first appearance in front of the G20 members in Brazil. Prabowo’s joint statement with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping sparked concerns after the document led to speculations that Indonesia was recognizing Beijing’s claims on the South China Sea. The Foreign Affairs Ministry later clarified that Indonesia still considered China’s nine-dash line maritime claims to lack a legal international basis. 

Muhammad Habib, a researcher at the think-tank CSIS, said Monday that Prabowo would likely make more surprises with his foreign policy choices in the years to come.

“[These surprises] are something we have to really anticipate because Mr. Prabowo is indeed a ‘foreign policy president’. Surprises are bound to happen over the next five years. But what’s most important is for all stakeholders to brace themselves for any consequences that may arise from those surprises,” Habib told a media gathering in Jakarta.

Habib added: "But we should try to trust the Foreign Affairs Ministry more so [Indonesia also] carries out its foreign diplomacy work in an institutional manner, and not solely focus on a single individual or leader."

Lina Alexandra, who heads the international relations department at the CSIS, is keeping her fingers crossed for a “pleasant surprise” in regards to Indonesia’s role in ASEAN. Just last week, top diplomat Sugiono delivered his annual press statement that mainly gave an overview of Indonesia’s foreign diplomacy under Prabowo’s rule. Sugiono touched on Indonesia’s commitment to ASEAN’s unity and centrality. Lina, however, said that the minister’s hour-long speech did not give much spotlight to the Southeast Asian bloc.

“So the kind of surprise that I’m hoping for is that Indonesia really wants to restore ASEAN’s integrity, relevance, and credibility. And also for Jakarta to show its intellectual leadership in ASEAN,” Lina told the same presser.

Indonesia assumed ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship in 2023 before handing over the leadership to Laos the following year. Close neighbor Malaysia is currently at the bloc’s helm. One of the group’s many outstanding tasks is finalizing its so-called code of conduct document negotiations with China by 2026. This document aims to mitigate the risks of conflicts in the strategic waterway of the South China Sea. Talks on this code have been underway since 2018.

“The kind of surprises that Prabowo should pursue is not one that raises people’s eyebrows, ... but some actual breakthroughs on matters that have not seen any substantial progress. For instance, Indonesia can try to come up with some innovative solutions to get the code of conduct negotiations moving,” CSIS researcher Andrew Mantong said.

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