Jakarta. The 2024 East Java gubernatorial election is shaping up to be highly competitive, with strong female contenders including Khofifah Indar Parawansa, Tri Rismaharini, and Luluk Nur Hamidah. According to Saidiman Ahmad from Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), despite Khofifah's current strong electability, she must not underestimate her rivals.

Saidiman said that Risma, supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), is a formidable competitor due to the party’s substantial voter base in East Java and Risma's strong track record as Surabaya’s former mayor. 

"PDI-P has a significant voter base; they're traditionally very strong in East Java, often coming in either first or second. Nationalist voters in the region are solidly behind them," Ahmad explained in a political focus group discussion at B-Universe PIK 2 headquarters, Tangerang on Monday.

West Java, with 35.71 million voters, is the province with the highest number of voters, followed by East Java with 31.4 million, Central Java with 28.29 million, North Sumatra with 10.85 million, Banten with 8.84 million, and Jakarta with 8.25 million.

Additionally, Ahmad warned not to underestimate Luluk Nur Hamidah from the National Awakening Party (PKB), given PKB’s success in the recent legislative elections and its representation of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Islamic organization in the country.

"PKB's candidate should not be taken lightly. They won the legislative elections in East Java, and as a representative of NU, which is significant in the region, their candidate poses a serious challenge," Ahmad noted.

With such dynamics, Ahmad believes that NU's support in East Java might be divided rather than consolidated behind Khofifah, despite her strong backing from the NU.

Meanwhile, Yohan Wahyu from Kompas Research and Development sees Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Dardak as having a competitive edge over Risma and Luluk

"Electorally, Khofifah has a higher chance compared to Risma and Luluk. As the incumbent with strong NU networks, Khofifah is well-positioned," Yohan said during the discussion at B-Universe.

Yohan also noted that Khofifah’s proximity to President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo could positively impact her political standing.

"The strength of Risma and Luluk relies more on their party networks—PDI-P for Risma and PKB for Luluk," he added.

According to Yohan, the three female gubernatorial candidates highlight East Java's growing openness to female leadership.

"The presence of three female candidates signals a more open attitude among East Java’s electorate towards women leaders. Khofifah has an electoral advantage, but Risma and Luluk, with their party support, still have strong prospects," Yohan remarked.

In the 2024 East Java gubernatorial race, Khofifah-Emil Dardak is supported by 15 parties, including Gerindra, Golkar, Demokrat, Nasdem, Perindo, PAN, PKS, PPP, PSI, PKN, PBB, Gelora Party, Labor Party, Garuda Party, and Prima. Tri Rismaharini-Zahrul Azhar Asumta has backing from PDI-P and Hanura, while Luluk Nur Hamidah-Lukmanul Khakim is supported by PKB.

Previously, political psychology expert Mohammad Abdul Hakim from Sebelas Maret University (UNS) in Surakarta said that East Java’s traditional Muslim population has shown increasing acceptance of female leadership.

He believes this cultural shift will have significant implications for Indonesia's political landscape, reflecting broader grassroots movements and the vital role of women in East Java’s societal organizations.