Washington. President Donald Trump has long argued that his tariffs protect US industries, lure factories back home, generate federal revenue, and give him leverage in global negotiations. Now, he’s adding a new claim: that they can finance a cash windfall for American families.

Trump said Sunday on his Truth Social platform that tariff revenue was so strong it could fund “a dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high-income people!).” The announcement came five days after Republican losses in Virginia, New Jersey, and other states, setbacks widely attributed to voter frustration over his handling of the economy and persistent inflation.

Budget experts, however, dismissed the idea as unrealistic. The proposal recalled Trump’s earlier talk of “DOGE dividend checks” funded by billionaire Elon Musk’s hypothetical budget cuts, a plan that never materialized.

“The numbers just don’t check out,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

Details of the latest proposal remain unclear, including possible income limits or whether payments would extend to children. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared caught off guard. Speaking on ABC’s This Week, Bessent said he hadn’t discussed the plan with Trump and suggested any “dividend” might instead come as a tax reduction rather than direct government checks.

Tariffs did generate $195 billion in revenue in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, up 153 percent from $77 billion in 2024, but that’s still less than 4 percent of total federal receipts and far short of the $1.8 trillion budget deficit in 2025.

According to John Ricco of Yale University’s Budget Lab, Trump’s tariffs may bring in $200 billion to $300 billion annually. Yet a $2,000 payment to every American, including children, would cost around $600 billion. “It’s clear the revenue coming in would not be adequate,” Ricco said, adding that such payments would also require congressional approval.

Trump’s tariff policies themselves face uncertainty. The US Supreme Court is reviewing whether the administration overstepped by invoking national emergency powers to impose broad import taxes without congressional consent. Several justices expressed skepticism during arguments last week.

If the court strikes them down, the administration could be forced to refund money to importers rather than send checks to households.

Economists note that tariffs are effectively paid by US importers, who typically pass the costs on to consumers through higher prices.

“The dividend plan misses the mark,” said York. “If the goal is to help Americans, the simplest fix is to get rid of the tariffs.”

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