Jakarta. Up to eight political parties may not pass the electoral threshold in Indonesia's upcoming legislative election on April 17, two polls indicated this week.

According to one of them, conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) on March 18-26 and involving 1,200 respondents across Indonesia, six political parties out of the 16 that will compete in the election are likely to fail to reach the minimum electoral threshold of four percent of total votes.

"The parties' performance in each electoral area will largely depend on how militant their legislative candidates are," LSI director Denny J.A. said at the release of the poll's results on Friday (05/04).

According to LSI, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)—President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's biggest backer—is the likely winner of this year's legislative election. 

If this happens, it will be the second time the party, led by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, take a majority in the parliament. 

Hot on the heels of PDI-P will be either Prabowo Subianto's Gerindra (Great Indonesia Movement Party) or the Golkar Party, Denny said. Prabowo is Jokowi's only rival in the presidential election.

LSI's poll used live interviews and had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

According to it, only five political parties are assured of passing the parliamentary electoral threshold—PDI-P, Gerindra, Golkar, PKB (National Awakening Party) and the Democratic Party.

Five other major parties—PAN (National Mandate Party), PKS (Prosperous Justice Party), PPP (United Development Party), NasDem (National Democratic Party) and Perindo (United Indonesia Party)—will have to put in extra effort to pass the electoral threshold.

If they fail to do so, they will not be allowed to run in the next parliamentary election in 2024.

Perindo is expected to be the only new political party to pass the electoral threshold this year.

Each of the six other parties—Hanura (People's Conscience Party), PBB (Crescent Star Party), PKPI (Indonesian Justice and Unity Party), Berkarya (Beringin Karya Party, led by Hutomo Mandala Putra or Tommy Suharto, the son of New Order dictator Suharto), the "millennial party" PSI (Indonesian Solidarity Party) and the Garuda Party—are more than likely to gain less than one percent of the votes, and fail to pass the electoral threshold, the LSI poll showed.

According to another poll from Indikator Politik Indonesia, which was conducted on March 22-29 and involved 1,220 respondents, up to eight political parties—Perindo, PAN, Hanura, PSI, Berkarya, PBB, Garuda and PKPI—may not pass the electoral threshold.

Indikator also released poll results measuring the presidential nominees' electability ratings.

55.4 percent of its respondents say they will vote for Jokowi and his running mate, Indonesian Ulema Council cleric Ma’ruf Amin, in the April 17 election. 

Their rivals Prabowo Subianto and his running mate, billionaire Sandiaga Uno, gained support from 37.4 percent of the respondents. 

The Indikator poll also used live interviews and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent, Suara Pembaruan reported on Thursday.

Burhanuddin Muhatadi, the executive director of Indikator, pointed out that the poll also indicated a declining number of undecided voters. 

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