Washington. The United States and China are unlikely to resolve all the issues dividing them before Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet Thursday in Busan, South Korea.

But the two sides are expected to make enough progress on China’s grip on strategic minerals, US export controls, and other contentious areas to calm financial markets and prevent their rivalry from inflicting further economic harm --at least for now.

“They’re trying to get to some kind of détente,” said Jeff Moon, a former US trade official and diplomat who now runs the consultancy China Moon Strategies. “There’s no pretense that they’re going to reach a grand bargain that solves everything in the relationship.”

Both countries sent out reassuring signals over the weekend that an agreement was nearing.

China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, told reporters that Washington and Beijing had reached a “preliminary consensus.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as producing “a very successful framework.”

Trump sounded optimistic as well, saying Chinese officials “want to make a deal, and we want to make a deal.”

Before the latest round of talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, over the weekend, negotiators had met four times this year --in Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid-- but had achieved only a tariff truce and a vague “framework” for future talks.

Earlier this month, Trump had threatened to impose another 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports beginning Nov. 1, on top of an already steep average of 57.6 percent, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

However, in a sign of progress, Bessent said Sunday on CBS’s Face the Nation that the triple-digit tariffs were “effectively off the table” as discussions continue.

Beijing’s Rare-Earth Cudgel

China dominates global production and processing of rare-earth minerals --vital materials for fighter jets, robots, electric vehicles, and other advanced technologies. In a show of leverage, Beijing has restricted exports, crippling US and other foreign firms. The latest tightening came Oct. 9, just ahead of the Trump–Xi summit.

“Rare earths are now the most effective lever that China can pull,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The rest of the world doesn’t have readily available or affordable productive capacity.”

The US and its allies are investing heavily to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, but that effort could take years. “They realize this is not a lever they can pull forever,” Liu added. “So they want to use it when it actually hurts.”

Bessent said Sunday on ABC that China was expected to “delay” its rare-earth export curbs “for a year while they reexamine it.”

Pini Althaus, founder of USA Rare Earth and now CEO of Cove Capital, which is developing mines in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, said the threat of future Chinese restrictions would remain until new supply chains are built. “The United States must urgently build independent critical minerals supply chains,” he said.

China’s Soybean Purchases

Rare earths aren’t China’s only leverage. American farmers, among Trump’s most loyal supporters, have long relied on China to buy roughly a quarter of U.S. soybean output. But this year, Beijing has turned to suppliers in Brazil and Argentina instead.

On NBC’s Meet the Press with Kristen Welker Sunday, Bessent ,who owns soybean farmland, said relief could be on the way: “We are going to be able to discuss substantial soybean and ag purchases for American farmers.”

Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said farmers want details about how much China will buy and whether those commitments will be enforceable. “Nothing would really discourage farmers more if there’s some very ambitious announcement, but then nothing ends up transpiring,” he said.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, wrote that Beijing may be willing to restart some U.S. purchases “as a goodwill gesture,” even if that means building stockpiles beyond normal levels.

America’s Export Controls

Beijing is seeking relief from strict U.S. export controls on sensitive technologies.

Last month, the US Commerce Department expanded restrictions to include affiliates of blacklisted firms in which they hold at least a 50 percent stake. Jeffrey Kessler, undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, said the rule would “close loopholes and ensure that export controls work as intended.”

China protested, calling the move “a typical case” of US overreach that would “severely harm the legitimate interests of companies.”

Ted Murphy, a trade lawyer at Sidley Austin, wrote that the US might ease restrictions if Beijing softens its rare-earth controls. “President Trump is in ‘deal mode’ and is unlikely to let the opportunity of meeting with President Xi in person get away without a deal,” Murphy said.

Still, Bessent told Face the Nation that “there have been no, no changes in our export controls.”

Trump’s Drug-Trafficking Tariffs

In February, Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports to pressure Beijing to curb the flow of chemicals used to produce fentanyl. He doubled it a month later.

China has complained that the Trump administration has not acknowledged steps it took during the Biden era to combat drug trafficking and has failed to clarify its demands. In response, Beijing slapped new 10 to 15 percent tariffs on U.S. farm products, including soybeans.

Bessent said Sunday that talks with China had yielded initial agreements to block precursor chemicals from entering the U.S., raising hopes that Washington may reduce the fentanyl tariffs.

‘We Can’t Decouple’

Whatever progress is made, Moon warned that the broader challenges remain unresolved.

China is trying to escape its property-driven slowdown by ramping up factory production and exporting low-priced goods worldwide, a move the US and other advanced economies see as a threat to their industrial bases.

“The United States and other wealthy countries are determined not to let Chinese overcapacity hollow out their industries,” Moon said. “Those are totally inconsistent trends. Both countries are deeply committed to them. And for that reason, I don’t see an end in sight.”

“We can’t decouple. There are things that we both need from each other,” he added. “If you continue trying to damage the other side with no end in sight, then both sides die the death of a thousand cuts.”

Moon said the only realistic path forward is “tactically trying to remove friction, basically slapping on band-aids without ever curing the disease.”

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