Toronto. US President Donald Trump raised the tariffs on Canadian goods to 35 percent last week, but a key exemption for Canada and Mexico shields the vast majority of goods from the punishing duties.

Goods that comply with the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade pact that Trump negotiated during his first term are excluded from the tariffs.

Here's a look at Trump's tariffs on the two countries and their exemptions:

Most Canadian Exports Reaching the US Duty Free
Canada’s central bank says 100 percent of energy exports and 95 percent of other exports are USMCA-compliant. The Royal Bank estimated that almost 90 percent of Canadian exports appear to have accessed the US market duty-free in April.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the commitment of the United States to the core of USMCA, reaffirmed again last week, means the US average tariff rate on Canadian goods remains one of its lowest, and over 85 percent of Canada-US trade continues to be tariff-free.

“Canada is better off than any of the trading partners right now because the Americans appear to be relying as a default on USMCA,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association. “That gives them the tough tariff headline but also allows them access to the stuff they need from us. Because of that, we’re in a relatively better position.”

Canadian and Mexican companies can claim preferential treatment under the USMCA based on where the products are made.

“The headline news is 35 percent tariffs, but it’s somewhat targeted,” said John Manley, Canada’s former industry minister, finance minister, foreign affairs minister, and deputy prime minister.

Manley said Canada is doing okay despite the economic uncertainty.

“There is a lot of resilience, I’d say. The Canadian economy has done relatively well, better than most of us expected, and remember that there is no tariffs on any of our energy exports," he said.

25% Tariffs on Mexican Goods Target a Small Slice of Trade
Trump said last week he would enter into a 90-day negotiating period with Mexico, also one of America's largest trading partners. The current 25 percent tariff rates are staying in place, down from the 30 percent he had threatened earlier.

But that 25 percent only applies to the fraction of Mexico's trade with the US that isn't covered by the USMCA. Shortly after speaking with Trump on Thursday, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that within the “new commercial world order,” Mexico was still the best-positioned nation because of the free trade agreement.

“What’s within (USMCA) has no tariff, with the exception of what we already know: autos, steel, and aluminum; and what is outside the treaty has 25 percent,” Sheinbaum said.

But Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard pointed out that under the USMCA, no tariffs were paid on more than 84 percent of Mexico's trade with the United States.

Most imports from Canada and Mexico are still protected by the USMCA, but the deal is up for review next year. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last month: “I think the president is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA."

Preserving the free trade pact will be critical for Canada and Mexico.

“It would be an incredible disruption to lose it, especially if you lost it to the levels of tariffs Trump is imposing, 30 percent, 25 percent, or even 20 percent. You can absorb a single-digit tariff level across the board, but you can’t adjust that kind of increase,” Manley said.

More than 75 percent of Canada's exports go to the US, while more than 80 percent of Mexico's exports go there.

Manley said that, depending on how the trade war plays out, the risk to the USMCA is very high. “Uncertainty in business is the enemy of decision making," he said.

Charging for Access
Carney said in a series of recent agreements with other countries that America is, in effect, charging for access to its economy.

Manley said the investment thesis for Canada is pretty straightforward, as Canada is rich in natural resources, has a skilled labor force, is open to immigration, and has unfettered access to the US market, the largest economy in the world.

“If that latter point is no longer the case, we’ve still got all the others, but we’ve got to really redevelop the investment thesis for attracting investment to Canada,” Manley said.

Trump has some sector-specific tariffs, known as 232 tariffs, that are having an impact. There is a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports and a 25 percent tariff on auto imports, though there is a carve-out for Canadian and Mexican-made cars.

“Despite our advantages, certain major Canadian industries are being severely impacted by US trade actions. These strategic sectors include autos, steel, aluminum, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and of course, softwood lumber,” Carney said Tuesday. “It is clear we cannot count or fully rely on what has been our most valued trading relationship for our prosperity.”