Jakarta. Rupiah weakened past Rp 17,500 against the US dollar on Tuesday morning as investors monitored stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran, while awaiting key US inflation data later this week.

Bloomberg data at 9:05 a.m. Jakarta time showed the rupiah falling 98 points, or 0.56%, to Rp 17,512 per US dollar in the spot market. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index strengthened 0.19% to 98.137.

Earlier in the session, the rupiah had opened 75 points lower, or 0.43%, at Rp 17,489 per US dollar, while the greenback gained 0.15% to 98.106.

On Monday afternoon, the rupiah closed 32 points weaker against the US dollar after earlier sliding as much as 45 points to Rp 17,414.

Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of Traze Andalan Futures, said the rupiah was expected to remain under pressure following stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran.

“Investors remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely remained closed since the conflict began,” Ibrahim said.

The rupiah is also forecast to weaken further as markets await the release of April US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).

Center of Reform on Economics economist Yusuf Rendy Manilet said the exchange rate is significantly above the assumption used in the 2026 State Budget Draft, which projected the rupiah at around Rp 16,500 per dollar.

“This deviation is not small because it has a direct impact on industrial import costs, corporate foreign currency debt payments, and the government’s subsidy burden,” he said.

Interestingly, the external pressure has emerged even as national economic growth indicators continue to show relatively solid performance. However, several domestic indicators are beginning to signal caution.

He said that the Consumer Confidence Index declined from 127 to 122.9 in March 2026. In addition, signs of capital outflows have started to emerge, indicating that market participants still see structural vulnerabilities in the Indonesian economy.