Jakarta. Food prices in Indonesia are climbing ahead of Ramadan 2026, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern rather than an extreme surge seen during past supply crises, economists say. Authorities are nevertheless urged to strengthen daily price monitoring, ensure smooth distribution, and reinforce national food reserves to prevent sharper volatility.

Data from Bank Indonesia’s National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) as of Tuesday afternoon show mixed price movements across provinces, particularly for horticultural goods and animal protein that usually fluctuate during major religious holidays.

Key Staple Food Prices Ahead of Ramadan (prices per kilogram)

• Shallots & Garlic: Medium shallots were priced at Rp 44,150; garlic at Rp 40,650
• Rice: from Lower-grade rice to premium rice prices ranged from Rp 13,900 to 16,550
• Chilies: Large red chilies to red bird’s eye chilies Rp 80,700.
• Chicken & Meat: Fresh chicken meat was recorded at Rp 42,600; beef at Rp 130,000–Rp 141,550, and eggs at Rp 32,250.
• Sugar & Oil: Premium sugar sold for Rp 20,100; cooking oil ranging from Rp 19,450, to  Rp 22,850.

Yusuf Rendy Manilet, a researcher at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, said markets typically adjust gradually to rising demand, with prices increasing about 5–10% in mid-February while national stock levels remain secure through at least March.

“From an economic perspective, this reflects a seasonal demand shock; demand rises simultaneously in a short period, while supply needs more time to adjust due to distribution limits, logistics costs, and weather disruptions,” he said.

He warned that without effective intervention, annual inflation, already around 3.55%, could reach 4–5% in the first quarter. Still, risks to economic growth remain manageable. “As long as supply stability and inflation expectations are maintained, Indonesia’s growth could stay around 5% to 5.1%. Ramadan and Eid also stimulate trade and consumption,” Yusuf said.

Permata Bank chief economist Josua Pardede noted that food, beverages, and tobacco were already major inflation drivers at the end of 2025, led by chilies, rice, poultry, eggs, shallots, and cooking oil.

“Sharp increases usually occur in bird’s eye chilies and red chilies, followed by rice, shallots, and animal protein, as supply is highly sensitive to weather, harvest gaps, feed costs, and interregional logistics,” he said.

Josua emphasized that effective control requires safeguarding supply, easing distribution bottlenecks, and protecting purchasing power, particularly through targeted food aid early in Ramadan. Temporary inflation spikes are likely during peak months before easing once supply normalizes, while seasonal consumption should still support growth unless price increases persist too long.

Separately, economist Teuku Riefky of LPEM FEB University of Indonesia said Ramadan demand may also lift prices for transport, clothing, and gold, adding short-term inflation pressure but supporting overall economic activity.

Structural supply weaknesses remain a concern. CORE Indonesia researcher Eliza Mardian said recurring price spikes in chilies, onions, and poultry stem from limited storage life and inadequate cold-chain infrastructure.

“If adequate cold storage existed, commodities could be stored during peak harvests,” she said, stressing that private investment is essential because state funding alone is insufficient.

High food prices risk eroding lower-income purchasing power, as these households spend 50–60% of income on food, making stronger market operations and real-time data systems critical, she added.

Bank Indonesia has pledged to reinforce food price control ahead of Ramadan. Deputy Governor Ricky P. Gozali said stable food prices are key to safeguarding inflation and purchasing power, given the seasonal and weather-sensitive nature of horticultural supply.

“Close collaboration between central and regional governments, institutions, businesses, and lawmakers is essential to maintain price stability and strengthen food security,” he said.

Indonesia’s inflation stood at 2.92% in 2025 within the central bank’s target range of 2.5% ±1%, before rising to 3.55% in January 2026, largely driven by volatile food prices.

The government says food task forces are ready to monitor markets and sanction violations of price ceilings. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman assured that supplies of key staples, from rice and cooking oil to poultry, eggs, and onions, remain sufficient through the Ramadan-Eid period.

“We are maintaining both retail price ceilings and producer reference prices through Ramadan and after Eid,” he said, noting national rice stocks of 3.3 million tons and 700,000 tons of cooking oil reserves at the state logistics agency.

Authorities stress that maintaining supply discipline and price compliance will be crucial to preventing seasonal demand from turning into sustained inflation pressure.

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