New US Tariffs Cloud Outlook for Exporters in Asia and Beyond
Bangkok. President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff rates on US imports from dozens of countries took effect Thursday, marking the latest escalation in his overhaul of global trade policy. Yet many questions remain over the scope and consequences of these measures.
The tariffs, which include import duties of up to 200 percent on pharmaceuticals and a 100 percent tax on computer chips, are already disrupting global supply chains. Most imports of copper, steel, and aluminum now face a 50 percent tariff.
Still pending is a decision on tariffs for products from China, while India has yet to finalize a deal and faces the threat of a 50 percent tariff as Trump presses New Delhi to halt purchases of Russian oil.
Early data suggests that uncertainty is weighing heavily on global exporters, with a recent spike in shipments ahead of the tariff deadline now tapering off. Companies worldwide are reporting billions of dollars in higher costs and losses.
Despite the new tariffs, global markets reacted calmly. Asian shares and U.S. futures were mostly higher on Thursday.
Tariffs Now in Effect
The latest tariffs, announced on Aug. 1, target 66 countries, including Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. They revise Trump’s earlier “reciprocal tariffs” proposal, first floated in April, which aimed to impose up to 50 percent import duties on countries with trade surpluses with the US. A baseline 10 percent tax applies to most others.
That initial announcement rattled markets, prompting Trump to delay implementation to allow time for negotiations. However, bypassing Congress by invoking a 1977 law and declaring the trade deficit a national emergency, the president has moved forward with the new tariffs, despite ongoing legal challenges.
Several key trading partners have since negotiated deals. The United Kingdom accepted a 10 percent tariff, while the European Union, Japan, and South Korea settled on 15 percent rates, lower than Trump’s original targets of 25–30 percent, but still significantly higher than the low single-digit rates paid last year.
Across Asia and Africa, countries like Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have agreed to tariffs of around 20 percent.
Indonesia, which secured a 19 percent rate, sees the deal as a competitive edge.
“We were competing against Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and China... and they are all subject to higher reciprocal tariffs,” said Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, a spokesperson from the Indonesian president’s office. “We believe we will stay competitive.”
China and India: Still in Limbo
Trump has not yet decided whether to extend the August 12 deadline for a trade deal with China. If no agreement is reached, tariffs of up to 245 percent could be imposed.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a 90-day extension is under consideration. The proposed deal includes a 50 percent flat tariff and additional duties targeting illicit trade in fentanyl.
The uncertainty is already hitting Chinese exporters, especially small manufacturers. China estimates that around 200 million workers have shifted to “flexible work” in the gig economy amid rising layoffs.
India, too, lacks a broad agreement with the US. Trump this week signed an executive order imposing an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian imports tied to purchases of Russian oil, bringing total tariffs to 50 percent.
Indian exporters say the move threatens nearly 55 percent of their shipments to the US.
“Absorbing this sudden cost escalation is simply not viable. Margins are already thin,” said S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.
Hardest-Hit Countries
Some of the steepest tariffs are hitting the world’s most vulnerable economies. Laos, Myanmar, and Syria now face 40–41 percent duties. Brazil was slapped with a 50 percent tariff, reportedly over Trump’s dissatisfaction with its treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
South Africa, which now faces a 30 percent tariff on its precious metal exports, warned that 30,000 jobs are at risk and that it may be forced to find new markets outside the U.S.
Even Switzerland is affected. Swiss officials traveled to Washington this week in a bid to avoid a 39 percent tariff on its exports of chocolate, watches, and luxury goods.
Canada and Mexico Navigate Around Tariffs
Goods compliant with the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which Trump negotiated during his first term, are exempt from the new tariffs.
Although Canada faces a separate 35 percent tariff, imposed after it recognized a Palestinian state, almost all Canadian exports to the US remain duty-free thanks to USMCA rules. Canada’s central bank estimates 100 percent of its energy exports and 95 percent of other exports meet the agreement’s requirements.
Meanwhile, Mexican exports not covered under the USMCA face a reduced 25 percent tariff during a 90-day negotiation window that began last week.
Business Outlook Worsens
Surveys of global factory activity suggest worsening conditions for exporters. In Japan, manufacturing output shrank in July, along with declines in purchasing and hiring, according to the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. These data were collected before Japan secured its new tariff agreement.
S&P Global also reported similar declines across other manufacturing hubs, noting that the earlier surge in exports --driven by efforts to ship goods ahead of the tariffs-- has faded. However, the service sector remains resilient, driven in part by tourism across Asia.
Companies are feeling the financial strain. Honda said Wednesday that it expects to incur around $3 billion in costs from the new tariffs, while Toyota reported a 37 percent drop in quarterly profit, also attributing $3 billion to tariff-related expenses.
Even the US economy, long touted by Trump as his greatest strength, is showing signs of strain after months of escalating trade tensions.
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