Jakarta. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) briefly edged up at Thursday’s open before reversing into negative territory, while the rupiah weakened sharply, as global energy shocks and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark index rose just 2 points, or 0.03%, to 7,103 at the opening, but quickly slipped into the red, moving within the range of 7,070–7,109 in early trade.

Data from RTI showed 2.13 billion shares traded in the opening minutes, with a transaction value of Rp 763.44 billion ($43.9 million) across 106,806 trades. Gainers slightly outpaced losers at 227 stocks versus 221 decliners, while 214 stocks were unchanged.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said market sentiment was pressured by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US blockade plan against Iran, which could disrupt around 20% of global oil supply. The situation has intensified energy shock risks and sustained inflationary pressure, narrowing the room for near-term interest rate cuts.

The brokerage also noted that the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady despite four dissenting votes, marking the widest internal split since 1992 amid tensions between rising energy inflation and weakening economic growth. “Powell asserted that policy remains flexible in both directions, but emphasized the complexity of the easing path amid energy price pressure,” Kiwoom wrote. It added that Powell is expected to remain as chair beyond his term, while Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate committee and awaits final confirmation as the next Fed chair.

Geopolitical risks remained elevated after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal, raising the possibility of a prolonged blockade or even limited strikes if negotiations stall.

On the technology front, sentiment weakened after OpenAI failed to meet internal targets, prompting investors to shift focus toward capital expenditure efficiency and AI monetization.

Phintraco Sekuritas highlighted that the World Bank projects energy prices to rise 24% this year to their highest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Overall commodity prices are expected to increase 16%, driven by higher energy and fertilizer costs, along with gains in several metal commodities.

Investors are also watching a series of key global data releases. In the United States, March 2026 PCE prices are projected to rise to 3.3% from 2.8% in February, while first-quarter GDP growth is estimated at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter.

From China, markets await April manufacturing and non-manufacturing data. In the euro area, investors are monitoring first-quarter GDP, inflation, unemployment, and the European Central Bank’s policy decision, with consensus expecting rates to remain at 2.15%. “Similarly, the Bank of England is also expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%,” Phintraco said.

Domestically, President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated the second-phase groundbreaking of 13 downstreaming projects worth Rp 116 trillion in Cilacap, spanning energy, mineral, and agricultural sectors.

The rupiah weakened to Rp 17,323 per US dollar, the weakest among regional currencies, while peers such as the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar held firm. The depreciation was driven by rising oil prices and the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Pressure also came from heavy selling in the domestic bond market, pushing the 10-year government bond yield up to 6.83%, signaling deepening capital outflows and a broader risk-off stance. “On the fundamental side, concerns over a widening current account deficit due to energy import dependency exacerbated pressure on the rupiah,” Kiwoom said.

Across the region as of 9:13 a.m. Jakarta time, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.05% to 59,290, while South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.06% to 6,695. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.58% to 25,961, and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.15% to 4,113.

Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 little changed, slipping less than 0.1% after pulling back from its recent record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 280 points, or 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up marginally by under 0.1%.

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