Jakarta.  Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opened lower on Thursday, slipping 0.56% as investors locked in gains following a global rally, with sentiment quickly turning cautious amid signs the US-Iran ceasefire may be unraveling.

The benchmark index fell 41 points to 7,238, moving within a range of 7,210–7,244. In the first four minutes of trading, volume reached 2.11 billion shares with turnover of Rp 1.18 trillion ($69.22 million) across more than 168,000 transactions. Decliners outpaced gainers, with 276 stocks falling, 209 rising, and 204 unchanged.

Global markets had rallied overnight after US President Donald Trump stepped back from threats to escalate tensions with Iran.

The S&P 500 jumped 2.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite both climbed 2.8%. The rebound followed Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, made less than 90 minutes before a deadline tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments.

Oil prices also retreated below $95 per barrel amid easing supply fears. Pakistan has since invited US and Iranian officials to continue negotiations in Islamabad, with the US delegation led by JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. Trump said most elements of a 15-point proposal, including tariffs and sanctions relief,  had been agreed, while warning that countries supplying weapons to Iran could face a 50% tariff on exports to the US.

However, optimism proved short-lived. According to Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, Iran accused the US of violating key terms even before formal negotiations began, citing ceasefire breaches in Lebanon, drone incursions into its airspace, and the denial of uranium enrichment rights. Iran also accused Israel of launching attacks in Lebanon, while Israel maintained that Lebanon is not covered under the ceasefire and pledged to continue targeting Hezbollah.

“Iran stated that under these conditions, the ceasefire becomes irrational and threatened to withdraw from the deal,” Kiwoom said.

Tehran also insisted the ceasefire should cover all fronts, including Lebanon, a stance that differs from Washington’s position, and signaled plans to impose cryptocurrency-based fees on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining permit requirements.

Despite the initial relief rally, markets remain cautious. Stock valuations are still below pre-conflict levels, while oil prices remain elevated amid fears of renewed disruptions. The ceasefire itself appears increasingly fragile, with Iran reportedly closing the Strait of Hormuz again on Wednesday following Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

“There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell, because, as you know, after all, it is Trump,” said Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at Monex.

The episode reinforces a pattern seen over the past year, where Trump has issued hard deadlines and threats, including tariffs and trade measures, only to delay or soften them later after market reactions. This has led some investors to coin the term “TACO,” or “Trump always chickens out,” reflecting perceived policy reversals under market pressure.

Domestically, Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves declined from $151.9 billion in February to $148.2 billion in March, marking the lowest level since July 2024. The drop reflects Bank Indonesia’s intervention to stabilize the rupiah amid global volatility and rising yields.

“Although still above adequacy standards (about six months of imports), this decline reflects pressure from a weakening trade balance and portfolio outflows, as well as increasing intervention costs in volatile global conditions,” Kiwoom said.

Across Asia on Thursday morning, markets moved lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.61%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.72%, and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.68%.

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