Jakarta. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index briefly rose 0.09% at Monday’s open before reversing course, fluctuating between 6,409 and 6,451 as investors weighed mixed global sentiment ahead of key domestic economic events.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opened 5 points higher at 6,446 before sliding, moving around the 6,400 level that Phintraco Sekuritas identified as a key support level for the week.

According to RTI data, 995.73 billion shares had changed hands in early trading, with a total transaction value of Rp 408.37 billion ($22.97 million) across 83,622 transactions. A total of 220 stocks gained, 214 declined and 242 remained unchanged.

Phintraco Sekuritas expects the JCI to consolidate within the 6,400-6,550 range this week, with the 6,400 level warranting close attention from investors.

“If the JCI breaks below 6,400 this week, the index could extend its decline and test the 6,300-6,350 area,” the brokerage wrote in a research note on Monday.

The brokerage said pressure on the JCI was in line with mixed global sentiment, with major Wall Street indexes ending Friday’s (Sept. 18, 2026) session mixed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined as US 10-year Treasury yields rose by more than 5 basis points to 5.006%.

Phintraco Sekuritas attributed the increase in US bond yields to expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain a hawkish policy stance through next year.

“This condition could increase pressure on the stock market,” the brokerage said.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on Sept. 18, 2026, its highest level since April 1995.

Pluang Research offered another perspective on the recent rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, noting that higher nominal rates do not necessarily translate into higher real rates.

“If inflation continues to outpace interest rates, investors holding cash or bonds can still see their purchasing power eroded despite earning nominal returns. The dynamic, often referred to as financial repression, can also help governments with large debt burdens by reducing the real value of their liabilities” said Pluang through its report, Monday.

For markets, a prolonged period of negative real rates could support demand for non-yielding assets such as gold and Bitcoin, as investors look for alternatives to cash and bonds.

Phintraco also said that oil prices also remained in focus. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.6% to $100 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 0.9% to $103 per barrel.

Phintraco Sekuritas said the Middle East conflict could continue to influence global stock markets, particularly through oil prices, inflation expectations and the outlook for interest rate increases.

“Investors will also be watching comments from several Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for future monetary policy. In addition, the market is awaiting the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the US on Sept. 23-25, 2026,” the brokerage said.

Domestically,  this week’s market movements will also be influenced by domestic economic developments, including Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting scheduled for Sept. 23, 2026.

Phintraco Sekuritas expects the central bank to maintain its benchmark BI Rate at 5.75%.

Investors will also monitor the release of August 2026 credit growth data, which the brokerage expects to reach 15% year-on-year (YoY), up from 13.58% YoY in July.

Across regional markets, South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.50% as of 9:12 a.m. Jakarta time, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.47% and Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index rose 0.44%.

Japan’s stock market was closed for a national holiday.

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