Jakarta. Indonesia’s economy is expected to expand 5.05% in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to the Eid holiday season, according to economic think-tank Celios.

Indonesia — the world’s largest Muslim-majority country — has just wrapped up its Eid holiday season. This period of time saw countless Indonesians traveling back to their hometowns. Others went to tourist destinations with their loved ones. Employees also got their share of Eid bonuses, which are typically worth a one-month wage. Indonesia has also been betting on these seasons to grow its gross domestic product (GDP), and that also applies for this year’s Eid.

"Economic growth in Q1 2026 is estimated at 5.05%, influenced by seasonal factors during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr," Bhima Yudhistira, the executive director of Celios, told state news agency Antara in Jakarta on Wednesday.

However, Bhima said that the Indonesian economy could actually exceed those figures, but a series of challenges had restricted household consumption. Many people are holding back on spending their Eid bonuses as they fear the post-holiday energy and food price hikes, thereby restricting economic growth. Bhima urged the government to keep inflation in check during the homecoming season. This way, people would be more confident in spending their bonuses.

Limited employment opportunities in major cities also set another impediment to growth. Job seekers usually take advantage of the Eid holidays to migrate to the cities. For this reason, the government needs to intensify job creation, according to Bhima. He also called for more attention to the tourism sector. 

"Seasonally, homecoming provides a boost to the tourism sector, but going forward, more intensive promotion is needed to reach new tourist destinations so that travelers stay longer," he said.

Indonesia aims to register a 5.5-5.6% year-on-year (yoy) growth in Q1 2026. The government has also launched an economic stimulus package worth Rp 911.16 billion (around $54 million) for the Eid travel discounts. The money will come from state funds and other sources.