Jakarta. Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.04 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 and 1.43 percent quarter-on-quarter, signaling steady resilience despite a slight moderation from 5.12 percent in the previous quarter, according to Global Chief Economist Shan Saeed of Juwai IQI.

Saeed described the current phase as a mid-cycle consolidation, calling it a healthy pause within Indonesia’s strong and sustainable growth trajectory. He noted that the latest figures should not be viewed as a slowdown but as part of a constructive economic cycle. According to him, Indonesia continues to demonstrate structural stability that is rarely seen among other emerging markets in the region.

Saeed projects full-year growth between 5.0 and 5.8 percent, describing Indonesia as a macroeconomic anchor in ASEAN, supported by disciplined fiscal and monetary policies and strong domestic fundamentals.

Several indicators point to renewed economic momentum heading into year-end. The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October 2025, marking the 25th consecutive month of expansion amid robust new orders and healthy export demand. The trade surplus stood at $3.2 billion in September, extending its positive streak to 65 months, bolstered by strong exports of electric vehicle-related metals such as nickel, copper, and cobalt.

In tourism, 11.2 million foreign visitors arrived between January and September 2025, already surpassing the full-year total for 2023. The figure is expected to reach 14 million by year-end, contributing an estimated 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth in the services sector.

Meanwhile, retail sales grew 3.1 percent year-on-year in September, supported by steady consumer demand. Inflation remained contained at 2.86 percent in October, underscoring the resilience of household purchasing power.

“With PMI above 50, a persistent trade surplus, and strong year-end tourism momentum, I expect fourth-quarter GDP to approach 5.5 to 5.6 percent,” Saeed said.

He noted that household consumption and exports remain the twin engines of Indonesia’s growth. Household spending, which accounts for 53.8 percent of GDP, remains robust, with the Consumer Confidence Index standing at 103.2 in September. The upcoming holiday season and year-end bonuses are likely to sustain this momentum.

On the external front, exports rose 11.4 percent year-on-year in September to $23.7 billion, driven by gains in mineral fuels (+18 percent), iron and steel (+15 percent), and machinery (+12 percent). Imports climbed 7.2 percent, signaling vibrant production and investment activity.

“All credit goes to Bank Indonesia,” Saeed said. “The central bank has maintained structural stability in the rupiah without hindering credit growth.”

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