Jakarta. Indonesia’s wholesale car sales from January to November 2024 fell 14.7 percent year-on-year to 784,788 units, according to industry data. Despite the decline, the figure remains on track to meet the full-year target.

“Car sales in 2024 could reach the target of 852,000 units if December’s sales hit 67,212 units. However, performance in the fourth quarter has been weak,” Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Christopher Rusli said in a report.

The industry association Gaikindo attributed the decline to weakening purchasing power.

Indonesia's largest car distributor, Astra International (ASII), maintained its market dominance in November, driven by Toyota's 26,984 units sold and Daihatsu's 10,030 units. Newcomer BYD secured sixth place with 2,842 units sold, reflecting a 14.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) increase.

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in the domestic market rose 18.8 percent MoM to 5,283 units, while hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) sales reached 5,629 units, up 6.2 percent MoM but down 11.6 percent year-on-year (YoY).

Globally, electric vehicle (EV) sales hit a record 1.8 million units in November, driven by strong demand from China. In Indonesia, the government is introducing a 3 percent luxury goods tax incentive for hybrid vehicles in 2025 alongside extended EV tax incentives, aiming to support the country’s Net Zero Emissions target by 2060.

Meanwhile, motorcycle sales in November 2024 fell 5.8 percent MoM to 512,942 units. However, cumulative sales grew 2.1 percent YoY to 5.9 million units, aligning with the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association’s (AISI) 2024 target of 6.2–6.5 million units.

Mirae Asset maintains an "overweight" rating on the automotive sector, expecting stronger sales in December, supported by events like the Gaikindo Jakarta Auto Week 2024. 

Mirae maintains a "buy" rating on Astra (ASII) shares with a target price of Rp 6,200. Currently trading at Rp 4,960, the shares offer a 25 percent upside.

Similarly, NH Korindo Sekuritas recently upgraded Astra to a "buy" rating, citing the company’s performance and a recovery in car sales. NH Korindo set a target price of Rp 5,900, equivalent to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.01x, slightly higher than the three-year standard deviation PE of -1. Currently, Astra trades at a PE ratio of 5.86x.

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