Jakarta. The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) has warned that applying anti-dumping duties (BMAD) on seven imported commodities, including ceramics from China, may not strengthen the domestic industry but instead benefit countries like India and Vietnam through trade diversion.

Andry Satrio Nugroho, Head of the Center for Industry, Trade, and Investment at INDEF, noted that India has benefited from similar duties in the US, causing imports to shift rather than decrease. This could lead to reduced market competition, fewer consumer options, and increased prices for ceramics, as domestic producers may raise their margins in response to rising import costs.

“As the quantity of ceramics in the market decreases while domestic demand rises, consumers will face higher prices,” he said.

Consequently, Andry warned that non-manufacturing stakeholders in retail, real estate, imports, forwarding, and logistics could also suffer. There is significant potential for job losses and increased unemployment as efficiency measures are implemented.

Furthermore, he highlighted the risk of retaliation from China, which could involve tariffs and other trade barriers affecting Indonesia.

On July 6, Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan announced that Indonesia plans to impose BMAD and safeguard duties on seven commodities, including textiles and electronics, with reviews conducted by relevant government bodies.

Senior Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan clarified that the policy is not aimed specifically at any country, particularly China. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China will closely monitor the situation and respond to any safeguard tariffs that may affect Chinese companies.