Jakarta. Indonesia stocks opened lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark dragged by renewed geopolitical tensions and MSCI’s decision to hold back changes to Indonesian equities, reinforcing cautious investor positioning.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 33 points, or 0.45%, to 7,560 at the open, moving within a narrow range of 7,548–7,566 in early trade.

Based on RTI data, around 2.15 billion shares were traded in the opening minutes, with transaction value reaching Rp 705.42 billion ($41.15 million) across 106,300 trades. Gainers slightly outpaced decliners, with 234 stocks rising, 220 falling, and 208 unchanged.

Global sentiment turned fragile as tensions between the United States and Iran resurfaced, clouding outlooks for oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz and prompting MSCI to postpone its May index-related decisions on Indonesia.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia said risk appetite initially improved after the strait briefly reopened, lifting markets, but reversed after the United States seized an Iranian vessel over the weekend, prompting Tehran to shut the route again.

“The lack of clarity in negotiation directions, combined with the ongoing US blockade pressing Iran by approximately $500 million per day, caused the market to hold positions without aggressive risk-off action,” Kiwoom said.

“In this phase, the market showed unusual resilience: investors began shifting focus to earnings and AI-driven growth prospects, while inflation risks from rising energy prices kept yields high and limited the role of safe-haven assets like gold.”

The brokerage said this mix left equities relatively supported, while gold remained subdued and overall market movements became more selective.

On the domestic front, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said Indonesia’s fundamentals remain solid, citing a fiscal deficit kept below 3% of GDP, rising tax revenue, and a fiscal buffer of Rp 402 trillion. He added that the World Bank had “apologized” for lowering its growth projections too quickly.

Investor confidence has also been supported by a stable sovereign rating from S&P Global Ratings and the government’s direct communication on fiscal and monetary policy, reinforcing views that Indonesia is not reliant on IMF assistance despite global uncertainty.

Still, MSCI maintained all restrictions on Indonesian equities for its May 2026 review. These include a freeze on increases to Foreign Inclusion Factors and share counts, no addition of new constituents, and no upgrades across size segments.

MSCI will also continue evaluating transparency reforms and the 15% free float requirement. Stocks with high shareholding concentration will remain subject to removal, while the use of 1% shareholder data will be introduced only on a limited basis. A follow-up decision is scheduled for the June 2026 Market Accessibility Review.

Oil prices rose on Monday as tensions escalated, though gains were more moderate than earlier in the conflict. Brent crude climbed 5.6% to settle at $95.48 per barrel, amid concerns that Iran could restrict shipments through the Persian Gulf.

On Wall Street, stocks retreated slightly from record highs. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, marking only its second decline in 14 days, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3%.

Across Asia on Tuesday morning, markets showed mixed movements. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.31% to 59,596, South Korea’s Kospi rallied 2.03% to 6,345, China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.29% to 4,070, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.12% to 26,392.

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