Jakarta. Indonesia will review its state budget within a month if global oil prices continue to rise above $100 a barrel, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said on Monday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push energy costs higher.

The government is monitoring developments in global oil markets before deciding whether policy adjustments are needed, Purbaya told reporters in Jakarta.

“After a month, we will predict what oil prices look like, so we can take the appropriate policy,” he said during a visit to Tanah Abang Market in Central Jakarta on Monday.

Oil prices surged at the start of the week amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted global energy supply routes.

As of 7:45 p.m. Jakarta time on Monday, the benchmark Brent crude was trading at around $102.8 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at approximately $100.9 per barrel. The spike marks one of the sharpest increases in global oil prices in the past four years.

Despite the jump, Purbaya said the government would not rush to revise fiscal policy, noting that Indonesia calculates the impact of oil prices on the state budget using an annual average rather than short-term fluctuations.

“Prices will rise, but our assumption is based on the full-year average,” he said. “If today it is $100 per barrel and later it falls to $50, the average could still end up similar to before.”

Indonesia’s state budget relies on key macroeconomic assumptions, including oil prices, which influence government spending on energy subsidies and fuel compensation.

Purbaya urged the public not to draw conclusions too quickly about the impact of rising energy prices on the economy.

“Let’s not judge too quickly. We need to see how conditions develop,” he said.

The finance minister also said the government currently has no plans to raise prices of subsidized fuel, despite the recent surge in global crude prices.

“So far, there is no policy to change fuel subsidies in the sense of raising fuel prices,” Purbaya said.

He added that Indonesia still has sufficient fiscal capacity to absorb the impact of higher energy costs if the increase proves temporary.

“The funds are still sufficient,” he said.

Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, allocated Rp381.3 trillion ($22.5 billion) in its 2026 state budget for energy subsidies and compensation payments to state-owned energy companies Pertamina and PLN. The funds are used to keep prices of certain fuels and electricity tariffs affordable for households.

The spending plan is based on an assumption that Indonesia’s crude oil price will average $70 per barrel this year, with the rupiah projected at around Rp16,500 per dollar.

Purbaya also sought to reassure markets that the country’s energy stockpile remains secure, with national oil reserves currently covering around 20 days of supply, which he described as above the operational minimum.

“A 20-day stock means we still have more than enough supply,” he said, adding that maintaining excessively large reserves would not be economically efficient.

Still, the government remains open to increasing energy supplies if necessary. “That option is always open,” Purbaya said.

He noted that Indonesia has previously weathered periods of high oil prices without major economic disruption.

“We have experienced high oil prices several times before, and the country did not collapse,” he said. “That’s because the policies were appropriate.”

For now, the government will continue to monitor global energy markets closely before deciding whether adjustments to fiscal policy are needed.

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