Jakarta. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has set a Rp 134 trillion ($8 billion) non-tax revenue target for Indonesia’s mining sector in 2026, lower than last year’s Rp 138 trillion intake, as the government moves to curb production of coal and nickel. 

Mining Director General Tri Winarno said firmer prices for key commodities — including tin, nickel, and gold — are expected to help offset lower production volumes.

“We are factoring that in. Prices are rising now, and several commodities such as tin, nickel, and gold have also strengthened,” Tri told reporters at the parliamentary complex in Jakarta on Monday. “Hopefully the target can be achieved.”

Coal prices, however, have been under pressure. Benchmark prices have slid since early November, with Indonesia’s coal reference price falling to $103.3 per ton in the first half of January, down from $109.74 in late October and well below the $114.43 recorded a year earlier.

On the production side, the Energy Ministry has capped nickel ore output in the 2026 Work Plan at around 250–260 million tons, a sharp drop of nearly 34% from the 379 million tons approved for 2025. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has warned that 2025’s production target may also be missed, estimating that output absorption had reached only about 120 million tons by June. Nickel prices, by contrast, have rebounded strongly. Market data show nickel rose 1.32% on Monday to $17,904.38 per ton and has surged more than 21% over the past month.

Beyond commodity prices, the government is counting on tighter supervision and improvements in mining governance to sustain revenue performance.

“It’s not only about prices. Oversight will be strengthened and governance improved,” Tri said. “With that combination, we are optimistic the target can be met.”

Energy Ministry data show non-tax revenue from the minerals and coal sector reached Rp 138.37 trillion in 2025, exceeding the state budget target of Rp 127.44 trillion. Total non-tax revenue from the broader energy and mineral resources sector, however, stood at Rp 243.41 trillion, below the Rp 255.5 trillion target.

Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal and a major producer of nickel for electric vehicle batteries, has increasingly relied on the mining sector to support state revenues while tightening output controls amid environmental and market concerns. The ministry has said coal production will be cut to around 600 million tons in 2026, down sharply from an estimated 790 million tons in 2025.