Jakarta. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa on Friday dismissed predictions that Indonesia’s economy could collapse due to surging global oil prices triggered by the ongoing conflict in Iran.

In a briefing to President Prabowo Subianto during a cabinet meeting at the State Palace in Jakarta, Purbaya argued that historical evidence shows Indonesia has repeatedly managed to sustain growth during periods of energy price shocks.

“Mr. President, there is a story about Indonesia’s economy,” Purbaya said. “Whenever oil prices start approaching $100 per barrel, many predict that our economy will fall apart.”

However, he said historical data contradicts such claims. Purbaya cited the 2007–2008 period when Brent crude prices surged sharply, at times reaching around $220 per barrel. Despite the spike, Indonesia’s economy still recorded 4.6% growth, supported by disciplined fiscal and monetary policies.

Similar patterns were seen in 2011 and again in 2022 during the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Even as oil prices rose above $100 per barrel, Indonesia’s domestic economic recovery continued.

According to Purbaya, the government has developed what he described as a policy “recipe” to mitigate the potentially devastating impacts of global energy price spikes.

“This means that if we implement the right policies, even when oil prices fluctuate significantly, we have the experience and the tools to manage the impact,” he said.

Purbaya also urged the president not to be swayed by economic analyses circulating on social media that lack solid data.

“So we should not be afraid, Sir. Analysts on TikTok or YouTube claiming our economy will collapse are not looking at the data at all,” he said.

Prabowo, in his remarks during the meeting, also called on the public to remain calm amid global economic uncertainty, including tensions in the Middle East.

“The world is full of uncertainty. Crises are affecting many countries, but our economic engine must keep running and our people must remain calm,” Prabowo said.

He added that Indonesia’s abundant natural resources provide a strong foundation for the country to withstand global shocks, including the geopolitical fallout from the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.

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