Jakarta. Indonesia’s rice production is projected to reach 33.8 million tons in 2025, with the potential to climb as high as 35.6 million tons, according to government estimates. If realized, the output would secure the country’s rice self-sufficiency target for the year and remove the need for imports.

The Agriculture Ministry cited projections by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), which estimated rice production of 28.24 million tons for January–September 2025. Assuming harvests in October–December match last year’s 5.58 million tons, full-year production would total 33.82 million tons.

During a joint meeting with the House of Representatives’ Commission IV, the National Food Agency, and the State Logistic Agency (Bulog) on August 21, officials said paddy harvest area this year is expected to cover 11.06 million hectares, producing 58.69 million tons of unhusked rice -- equivalent to 33.82 million tons of milled rice. With domestic consumption estimated at 31.14 million tons, Indonesia would end the year with a surplus of 2.67 million tons.

By FAO standards, a country achieves self-sufficiency when it can meet at least 90% of domestic demand.

Minister Confident Targets Will Be Exceeded
Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman expressed confidence that 2025 production will surpass the official target of 32 million tons.

“We predict rice production this year will be 33–34 million tons. Domestic demand is 31 million tons, excluding hotels, restaurants, and catering. Production will exceed the 32-million-ton target,” Amran said.

He also stressed that no government rice imports have been made so far this year, and that imports are unlikely. Indonesia imported a total of 7 million tons of rice between 2023 and 2024, worth nearly Rp 100 trillion ($6 billion).

Current government rice reserves stand at 4.2 million tons, the highest in 57 years and far above the 1 million tons recorded a year earlier.

Experts Urge Selective Self-Sufficiency
Agricultural economist Bustanul Arifin, president of the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE), said favorable weather in 2025 has supported higher yields, contrasting with last year’s harsher conditions.

However, he warned that food self-sufficiency cannot be achieved across all commodities.

“We cannot expect full food self-sufficiency at once -- it must be gradual. The President’s three-year target means rice self-sufficiency might be achieved by 2027,” he told BeritaSatu TV.

According to Bustanul, Indonesia should focus selectively on key staples such as rice and corn -- the latter being critical for animal feed to secure domestic meat and egg supplies. Full self-sufficiency across all food commodities, such as wheat, remains unrealistic given production constraints.