Jakarta. President Prabowo Subianto’s flagship free meal program could balloon to hundreds of trillions of rupiah and put significant pressure on the state budget, a senior economist warned on Wednesday.

By 2026, the program is projected to cost Rp 400 trillion ($24.5 billion) as it expands to nearly 83 million beneficiaries, including school-aged children and expectant mothers, said Izzudin Al Farras Adha of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF).

He cautioned that such a large allocation for a single program could undermine the government's ability to fund other critical priorities, such as infrastructure projects and debt servicing.

“This situation poses a serious risk to fiscal sustainability, especially when the government still needs to allocate substantial funds to repay debts due this year and next,” Izzudin said. “The widening scope of the free nutritious meal program will impact the state budget not only this year, but in the next fiscal year as well.”

Originally aimed at elementary and middle school students in areas with high stunting rates, the program has since been expanded to cover all school-aged children and expectant mothers, increasing the number of recipients from 19 million to 82.9 million.

Despite its goal to support vulnerable children in remote and impoverished areas, Izzudin noted that much of the program’s implementation so far has been concentrated in urban centers.

“Over the past five months, distribution has focused on Jakarta, Bekasi, and Depok -- areas where stunting and poverty rates are relatively low. This deviates from the 2025 state budget’s intended priorities,” he said.

Izzudin also warned that similar programs in other countries have often faced challenges such as corruption, budget overruns, and food safety risks.

He urged the government to narrow the program’s focus and target only those who truly need it, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach.

Many children come from households that can afford nutritious meals without government aid. A more selective approach would be more efficient and effective, he said.