Jakarta. The prices of staple food commodities in Indonesia, including chili and cooking oil, are expected to rise during Ramadan, driven by increased demand and supply limitations, according to the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF).

Senior economist Tauhid Ahmad highlighted that price surges during the fasting month typically affect essential items such as cooking oil, meat, chili, and onions.

"Cooking oil and meat are among the key commodities experiencing price hikes. The government’s highest retail price for cooking oil is Rp 15,700, but it could rise above that, even reaching Rp 17,000. Similarly, beef, which should be around Rp 130,000 per kilogram, could surpass Rp 140,000," Tauhid said on Saturday.

The spike in food prices during Ramadan is a recurring trend in Indonesia, as households prepare for daily pre-dawn and iftar meals, significantly increasing demand in a short period. This surge, combined with distribution bottlenecks and supply shortages at retail outlets, drives up prices.

Egg prices, however, tend to remain relatively stable due to ample stockpiling by independent farmers ahead of Ramadan. "Egg farmers typically prepare for increased demand, so even if prices rise by Rp 1,000 or Rp 2,000 per kilogram, it remains manageable for consumers," Tauhid explained.

Chili prices, on the other hand, remain volatile, particularly due to unpredictable weather conditions. Heavy rainfall often hampers production, leading to crop failures and a limited supply of high-quality chilies.

"When the flowers don’t bloom properly, or when excessive rain leads to rotting, the price naturally goes up by 5-10 percent. If the increase remains within this range, it's still reasonable. However, ahead of Eid al-Fitr, chili demand spikes sharply, and prices could surge to Rp 70,000-Rp 80,000 per kilogram," Tauhid said.

To mitigate the impact of supply shortages, Tauhid called for innovation in agriculture, such as the development of greenhouse farming to counter climate change effects on horticulture. However, he acknowledged that investment in this sector remains limited and requires broader support from stakeholders.

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