Jakarta. Bank Indonesia (BI) expects retail sales to fall by 6.9 percent in April 2025, following a strong 13.6 percent increase in March. The decline is due to a return to normal demand after the busy Ramadan and Eid holiday shopping period.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, BI’s spokesman Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said retail sales in April are expected to shrink due to reduced demand after the peak shopping period associated with the holidays. "The normalization of demand following the end of Ramadan and Eid is impacting retail sales," Prakoso said.

Most product categories have seen a downturn, with the most significant declines observed in household goods (-10.6 percent), food, beverages, and tobacco (-7.2 percent), and clothing (-9.1 percent). The only segment showing improvement, albeit still in contraction, is motor vehicle fuel, which saw a slight increase of 0.8 percent, supported by smooth distribution.

BI’s Real Sales Index (IPR) for April 2025 is projected to reach 231.1, supported by the growth of auto parts, motor vehicle fuel, and clothing accessories. However, other sectors, particularly information and communication equipment, household goods, and food, beverages, and tobacco, are expected to experience a decline in sales.

In March 2025, the IPR stood at 248.3, reflecting a 5.5 percent year-on-year (yoy) growth, marking a significant increase compared to February's 2 percent yoy growth. The rise in the IPR was driven mainly by food, beverages, tobacco, cultural goods, recreation items, and clothing, with retail sales growing 13.6 percent from February, driven by Ramadan and Eid demand, as well as retailer discounts.

Looking ahead, BI’s survey indicates that retailers expect lower sales in June and September 2025, with the Retail Sales Expectation Index (IEP) for these months forecasted to be 125.5 and 137.1, respectively, both lower than previous readings of 147.3 and 162.8. Respondents indicated that the June dip will be influenced by school exam periods, while September's decline is attributed to normal activities and the absence of significant holidays or events.

In terms of prices, inflationary pressures are also expected to decrease in June and September 2025, as reflected by the expected General Price Expectations Index (IEH) of 146.4 and 153.1, down from the previous indices of 148.3 and 155.5. Respondents attributed the decline in price expectations to adequate goods availability and normal demand patterns, particularly in September.

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