Jakarta. Bayan Resources (IDX: BYAN) shares plunged 10.12% to Rp 11,100 on Monday as the coal miner faced mounting pressure from a force majeure declaration tied to delayed 2026 work-plan approval and continued market speculation over a potential takeover

A total of 1.95 million BYAN shares changed hands in 3,663 transactions, generating Rp 21.75 billion ($1.23 million)  in trading value. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp 3.58 billion.

The stock has mostly declined since mid-August, falling 22% over the past month.

The pressure intensified after Bayan Resources and three subsidiaries -- Tiwa Abadi (TA), Tanur Jaya (TJ), and Fajar Sakti Prima (FSP) -- notified customers on Sept. 11 of a force majeure affecting their obligations to supply coal under Coal Supply Agreements.

The companies attributed the force majeure to the pending approval of amendments to their 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB), despite having submitted the applications in accordance with prevailing regulations.

“Approval of the RKAB is required for the company’s subsidiaries to legally carry out coal production activities. The current condition affects the company and its subsidiaries’ ability to fulfill their obligations to customers,” Bayan’s board of directors said in an information disclosure cited Tuesday.

The company said the force majeure notification was made to customers in response to the situation.

Bayan’s management warned that the lack of approval for the amended RKAB could have a material impact on business continuity. However, it said the force majeure notification was intended to minimize potential risks and consequences for the company and its subsidiaries.

Meanwhile, market attention remains focused on reports that businessman Andi Syamsuddin Arsyad, better known as Haji Isam, may seek to acquire a controlling stake in Bayan Resources.

An entity controlled by Haji Isam has reportedly offered around $3 billion, or Rp 52.6 trillion, for roughly 62% of BYAN.

Capital market analyst Hendra Wardana said the reported offer raises questions given Bayan’s market capitalization of around $26 billion. A $3 billion offer for 62% of the shares would imply an equity valuation of roughly $4.8 billion, about 80% below the company’s market value.

The 62% stake is also significant because Bayan founder Low Tuck Kwong has been reported to own around 40.2% of BYAN, while his daughter Elaine Low owns about 22%, bringing their combined stake to roughly 62.2%.

If completed, the transaction would therefore potentially transfer control of one of the Indonesia Stock Exchange’s largest and most valuable coal producers, rather than simply involve a minority share purchase.

Still, Hendra cautioned that the reported $3 billion figure should not yet be treated as a final transaction price.

“The $3 billion figure should not yet be treated as the final price. It could still be part of negotiations,” Hendra said in Jakarta on Wednesday.

The eventual economic value could depend on the payment structure, funding source, transaction mechanism, rights attached to the shares and other conditions, he said.

Bayan’s fundamental appeal remains supported by its integrated coal operations, proprietary logistics infrastructure, large production scale and relatively competitive cost structure.

In the first half of 2026, BYAN posted revenue of around $1.74 billion and net profit of $416.6 million, up 16.8% from the same period a year earlier.

The company sold around 70.8 million tons of coal in 2025, with production reaching about 68 million tons.

Hendra said Bayan’s earnings capacity shows that its investment appeal extends beyond coal reserves to its production capabilities, infrastructure, operational efficiency and cash-generation capacity.

However, he urged investors to distinguish takeover speculation from confirmed developments. There has been no confirmation that the reported acquisition has reached a final agreement.

Bayan’s management previously said it was unaware of any plan by Haji Isam or affiliated parties to acquire around 62.2% of the company. The company has, however, said its controlling shareholders may consider various investment opportunities.

Hendra therefore advised investors not to base their investment decisions solely on the takeover speculation. If the rumor fades, BYAN’s valuation and share performance will again hinge on coal production, selling prices, costs, margins, cash flow and dividends.

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