Jakarta. Bank Mandiri (IDX: BMRI) posted a sharp 39.8% jump in net profit in the fourth quarter of 2025, lifting full-year earnings to Rp 56 trillion ($3.33 billion), up 0.9% year-on-year. The state-owned lender also paid a sizable dividend for the 2024 financial year, a trend analysts expect could continue in 2025.

Interest income rose 8.7% in 2025 to Rp 164.41 trillion, but interest expenses grew faster at 17.6%, limiting net interest income growth to 4.4% at Rp 106.21 trillion.

“Net interest margin narrowed by 26 basis points to 4.9% amid tighter liquidity and elevated interest rates throughout the year,” Phintraco Sekuritas said in a research note on Tuesday.

Loan growth remained solid at 13.4%, with total credit reaching Rp 1,895 trillion in 2025, exceeding initial estimates. Deposits increased 23.9% year-on-year to Rp 2,106 trillion, supported by a 12.6% rise in low-cost funds (CASA) to Rp 1,431 trillion.

Looking ahead to 2026, Phintraco expects Bank Mandiri’s performance to moderate as management targets loan growth of 7–9%, prioritizing asset quality and risk discipline. Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is expected to remain stable before improving again in 2027.

The brokerage forecasts net profit of Rp 55.6 trillion in 2026, rising to Rp 59.7 trillion in 2027. It maintained a buy rating on BMRI, raising its fair value to Rp 5,700 per share from Rp 5,600, based on dividend discount and relative valuation models. BMRI’s price-to-book ratio remains below its five-year average plus two standard deviations of 1.76 times.

Bank Mandiri’s latest dividend yield stood at 7.7%, higher than Bank Central Asia’s 2.58% but below Bank Negara Indonesia’s 8.6% and Bank Rakyat Indonesia’s 8.37%, offering a reference point for its potential 2025 payout.

As of 3:03 p.m. local time on Tuesday, BMRI shares were trading at Rp 5,050, up 1%, within a range of Rp 4,990–5,075, giving the bank a market capitalization of Rp 464.31 trillion. Stockbit data showed BMRI was the most actively accumulated stock by foreign investors during the midday session.