Jakarta. A senior economist said Monday that President-Elect Prabowo Subianto’s ambitions of reaching an 8 percent growth rate are not exactly a pipe dream, but it is something that would likely occur beyond his presidential term.

Prabowo not long ago boasted that he was confident Indonesia could expand by 8 percent within his first three years in office, among others, by ramping up biodiesel production to slash diesel oil imports. But what Prabowo dreams of is far more ambitious compared to past trends. Most recently, Indonesia recorded a 5.05 percent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2024. Telisa Aulia Falianty, an economist from the University of Indonesia, doubts Prabowo can achieve the 8 percent growth in his 2024-2029 term. But that does not mean Indonesia will never expand by 8 percent.

“An 8-percent growth is something that takes place in stages, but we are already on the path to 8 percent,” Telisa told reporters at The Jakarta Globe’s 2025 Economic Perspective forum in Jakarta on Monday. 

The term of office in Indonesia lasts for 5 years, and a president may get re-elected once. According to Telisa, Prabowo’s government will likely be only enough to spur growth gradually to at least 6 percent. 

“Perhaps we can go for 5.3 percent in 2026, and raise the target to 5.5 percent the following year. And eventually 5.7-6 percent in 2028 and then go beyond 6 percent afterward,” Telisa said. 

“But it is unlikely that we can achieve 8 percent in one single term. … We are struggling to make the economy expand by over 5 percent. We might only be able to unlock a 6-7 percent growth in a single presidential term, perhaps achieving an 8 percent growth might take two government eras,” Telisa said.

Just a few weeks ago, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo said Indonesia would expand 5.2 percent next year. Inflation will likely stand at 2.5 percent in 2025. 

Think-tank Indef data showed that the annual growth under Jokowi’s 10-year leadership averaged 4.9 percent. Jokowi has been in office since 2014. The Indonesian economy grew at an average of 5.7 percent under his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who ruled the country in 2004-2014. In past governments, Soeharto --Indonesia’s longest-serving president (1967-1998)-- was the only one to have booked a double-digit growth, precisely 10.9 percent in 1968.

Prabowo’s inauguration is scheduled for this October. It is still unclear whether Prabowo will run for a second term in the 2029 election. Before winning the February presidential race, Prabowo had lost twice to Jokowi in past elections. The former army general, however, is now about to secure the top government job with Jokowi’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as his vice president-elect. 

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